2014 U.S. Senate race update

Here’s my update on the 2014 U.S. Senate race in West Virginia on candidates who, I believe, are definitely in, thinking about getting in, or taking themselves out.

Solidly In

Shelley Moore Capito (R)

The Republican Congresswoman has already announced her intentions.  So far, no other Republican is in the race.  The Cook Political Report rates the seat as a toss-up, but Capito can easily be viewed as the early front runner.
Leaning In Ralph Baxter (D) The successful and wealthy attorney is retiring as Chairman and CEO of Orrick, Herrington and Sutcliffe, an international law firm based in San Francisco.  Baxter has strong West Virginia connections; he spent part of his youth in the state’s northern panhandle and his firm opened a large office in Wheeling in 2002.   Baxter is moving back to Wheeling and he’s said to be “dead serious” about running.
Leaning Out Nick Joe Rahall (D) The Congressman said on Talkline that he needed to determine if he had the “fire in my belly” for a run at the Senate.  It does not appear that he does.  Rahall, like several of the other potential candidates, is intimidated by the big money it would take to win the race.  Plus, Rahall appears comfortable as the senior member of the state’s Congressional delegation.
Solidly Out Carte Goodwin (D) He served briefly as U.S. Senator after Robert Byrd’s death in 2010.  His name as a possible candidate has been mentioned prominently and he has talked to Democratic leaders in Washington about the race, but he tells me he’s decided against it.  Goodwin says his decision is based on family concerns.  He and his wife, Rocky, have two young children.  Meanwhile, the Goodwin law practice is a safe place to be.
Solidly Out Booth Goodwin (D) The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia has also been chatted up by Washington Democrats.  However, Goodwin has similar concerns as his first cousin, Carte; he has a young family and not the personal wealth necessary to risk his current position, which he describes as his “dream job.”
Solidly Out Gaston Caperton (D) The former Governor turns 73 this month and, while in good health, considers himself a little old to run.  If he won, he would be 80 when he finishes his first term.   Caperton might have taken a crack at it had the seat opened up ten or 20 years ago.   Meanwhile, Caperton has been giving advice to his friend, Ralph Baxter.
Toss-up Robin Davis (D) The State Supreme Court Justice certainly enjoys the attention that goes with being mentioned as a possible Senate candidate.  Her husband, Scott Segal, is a successful trial attorney, so the couple has personal wealth.  But Davis just won re-election to a 12-year term on the court and she would have to give up that seat the moment she decided to run.
Toss-up Natalie Tennant (D) The Secretary of State is a popular politician who has proven she can win statewide races.  She’s believed to have her eye on the Governor’s race in 2016, but the 2014 Senate race is also on her radar.  One awkward twist:  her husband, state Senator Erik Wells, plans to run for Congress in 2014.  How would voters react to a husband and wife on the same federal ticket?
Unknown ? (D) There’s word circulating of a wealthy, socially conservative Democrat who is interested in running, but the name has not yet surfaced.




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