Rahall vs. Jenkins

State Senator Evan Jenkins’ likely party switch and 3rd District congressional campaign sets up a fascinating scenario in the2014 General Election.

The opponent, if Jenkins gets through the Primary Election (It’s possible the 2012 Republican nominee Rick Snuffer will run again), will be long-time incumbent Nick Rahall.  The veteran congressman has won every election since 1976, but Republicans have been gaining on him.

Jenkins will first have to get over the hump that comes with a party switch.

He will have to explain, over and over, that the President and current Democratic leadership in Washington are seriously damaging the coal industry and the best way to fight back is send a pro-coal, pro-business Republican to Capitol Hill.

Given the anti-Washington sentiment—the Congressional disapproval rating is at an all-time high of 83 percent—Rahall should stay as far away from D.C. as possible.

Instead, he can bank on the relationships he has built in the district over the last four decades; stump in every town, remind voters about the time his office fixed a problem with someone’s Social Security check or their Veteran’s benefit.  He can tell stories about cutting ribbons for water plants and highways.

In short, he needs to remind voters why they have sent him to Congress 19 times. No doubt he has a long list of people he has helped over the years.  In 2014, Rahall will have to ask them to return the favor.

The geography and voting patterns of the district give both Rahall and Jenkins certain advantages.

Rahall has, and will continue, to dominate the southern West Virginia coal counties.  Boone, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Mingo and Wyoming are Democratic strongholds. Their numbers are dwindling, but Democratic voters will again give Rahall decisive victories there.

Jenkins gains an important edge by being from the largest county in the district—Cabell.   In 2012, Jenkins received 18,210 votes there even though he was unopposed, while Rahall received 13,725 in a contested race.

Jenkins’ home field advantage, combined with Republican trends in Mercer and Raleigh, mean the Huntington lawyer will have the edge in the three largest counties in the district.

If “the big three” and the coal counties offset each other, that means the race could be decided in five counties.

Republicans like Jenkins’ chances in that scenario because of the voting history in the last three elections. GOP candidate totals steadily increased from 2008 to 2012 in Fayette (30% to 47%), Greenbrier (32% to 48%), Monroe (37% to 51%), Nicholas (29% to 48%) and Summers (30% to 45%).

A brief whistle stop at the courthouses in those key counties won’t be enough. Rahall and Jenkins will each need bona fide campaigns in those counties with a physical presence, paid staff and volunteers.

Rahall hasn’t had a really close race since Republican Marianne Brewster came within four percentage points (52-48) in 1990, a contest Rahall took lightly.  He has not made the same mistake since, nor will he in 2014.

Jenkins would enter with the baggage that comes with a late-in-the-game party switch. But he’ll also have a geographic advantage, as well as support from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has made knocking off Rahall a top priority.

That would make Rahall vs. Jenkins one of the most compelling races of 2014.

 

 

 





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