Two of the three Congressional races in West Virginia for 2014 have already taken shape.
In the 1st District, two-term Republican David McKinley is, as of today, a heavy favorite to win re-election. So far, the only possible serious challenger is Democratic state Auditor Glen Gainer, but he has not yet decided whether to run.
Third District Representative Democrat Nick Rahall is seeking re-election to his 20th term, but he has a formidable challenger. State Senator Evan Jenkins of Huntington has switched to the Republican Party and gotten in the race, setting up what should be one of the top House races in the country.
The race in the 2nd District, however, is more unpredictable.
Charleston attorney Nick Casey is the probable Democratic nominee, though he is getting a Primary Election challenge from House of Delegates member Meshea Poore. Casey, as the former state party chairman, who can self-finance a campaign, has a decided advantage.
However, the contest for the Republican nomination in the 2nd, which is the seat being vacated by Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, who is running for the U.S. Senate, is wide open.
There are five Republicans who have filed pre-candidacy papers or have announced their intentions to run: Larry Faircloth, Robert Fluharty, Charlotte Lane, Alex Mooney and Jim Moss.
Lane, 65, is a Charleston lawyer, former House of Delegates member, and the early favorite among established Republicans and the national party. But she has to show that she can raise the money necessary for an effective campaign.
The race for the Republican nomination is also attracting the interest of two young potential candidates: Suzette Raines and Ron Walters, Jr.
Raines, 29, is a House of Delegates member from Charleston, who has already announced she’s running for the State Senate in 2014. However, she’s now thinking seriously about the Congressional run.
Supporters have started a Draft Raines effort, and she has begun making phone calls to measure support and see if she can raise money.
Walters, who is the son of long-time House of Delegates member Ron Walters, and a brother of state Senator Chris Walters, talked earnestly and enthusiastically to me this week about his interest in Congress. Walters, who is also 29, should make a decision within a few weeks and he sounds as though he’s learning toward running.
Naturally, money is a key to a successful campaign in the sprawling 2nd district, and Alex Mooney has an early advantage.
Mooney, who moved to Berkeley County earlier this year from Maryland after serving 12 years as a State Senator and two years as Maryland’s GOP Chairman, says has $100,000 on hand.
Campaign finance reports show $40,000 is left over from a planned Congressional run in Maryland in 2012 that never materialized. He also raised another $54,000 in the last few months, all from out-of-state donors. Mooney says he has a goal of raising another $100,000 before the end of the quarter.
But Mooney has more of an uphill battle because he’s just recently become a West Virginian. He’s not known in Kanawha and Putnam Counties, where four out of ten votes came from in the last General Election.
The early stages of campaigns are all about fundraising. One GOP operative told me his advice to potential Congressional candidates is, “If you can’t identify where $100,000 in contributions are coming from, you should run for something else.”
The GOP expects to hold on to WV-1 and has hopes of taking WV-3, but it also faces an enormous challenge of holding WV-2. Political guru Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics and The Cook Political both have WV-2 as “lean Republican.”
However, the early fundraising by Nick Casey (he has raised $470,000, though $300,000 came from his own checkbook), and the unsettled Republican field, makes this race more of a toss-up right now.