The likelihood that Democrat state Auditor Glen Gainer will run for the 1st Congressional District seat and challenge incumbent Republican David McKinley grows more remote each day.
Gainer insists that he has not made a final decision, but as I talked with him this week it became increasingly evident that he won’t get in the race.
“That’s definitely the way I’m leaning,” Gainer told me. “If I had to make a decision today, I would probably say no.”
In fact, Gainer even passed on yet another invitation to Washington this weekend to meet with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The DCCC has been lobbying Gainer hard to get in the race.
The national party sees Gainer as having the best chance of regaining the 1st District. Democrats represented the 1st (Robert Mollohan, followed by his son Alan Mollohan) from 1969 until 2011. In the 2010 election, McKinley narrowly beat Democrat Mike Oliverio, who had beaten Mollohan in the Primary.
And Gainer has the potential to be a viable candidate. He has run well in the 1st District in his six successful statewide elections as Auditor. Gainer lives in Wood County, and his popularity there could offset what was a stronghold for McKinley in 2012.
Also, Democrats hold a decided registration edge; 194,000 Democrats, 128,000 Republicans and 70,000 independent or other party affiliation.
The numbers and the wooing from party officials have tempted Gainer, especially since he has had a life-long desire to be a member of Congress. However, Gainer, like a growing number of politicians, is dissuaded by the nature of campaigns today.
Gainer does not have the personal wealth to finance a campaign. He would have to start dialing-for-dollars immediately in hopes of raising several million dollars to mount a successful campaign. “That’s something I really don’t want to do,” he told me.
Meanwhile, McKinley has a significant head start. He has not yet filed his latest quarterly report, which is due this month, but he’s expected to have about $1.2 million on hand.
Then there are the inevitable negative and attack ads that come with today’s campaigns, especially those with national implications that attract outside independent spending. “I’ve got a pretty thick skin,” Gainer told me, “but do you want your family to go through that?”
Gainer could still change his mind. The party recruiters in Washington are experienced at courting candidates, tempting them with sure-sounding strategies to victory and even appealing to their party loyalty and patriotism.
But I don’t see Gainer taking the bait, and that will leave McKinley with an unencumbered path toward re-election.