Just a few weeks ago, state Auditor Glen Gainer had all but made up his mind not to run for Congress in the state’s 1st Congressional District.
“That’s definitely the way I’m leaning,” Gainer told me at the time. “If I had to make a decision today, I would probably say no.”
But the six-term auditor did not have to decide then. Instead, he kept rolling the possibility over in his mind, talking with friends and supporters. Meanwhile, the federal government shut down for 16 days.
Polling shows Americans blame Republicans more than Democrats for the partial shutdown. For example, here’s what a CBS News poll found after the government went back to work:
“While 31 percent of Americans approve of the way Democrats in Congress are doing their job, just 18 percent approve of how Republicans are doing theirs. Disapproval among Republicans in Congress has risen five percentage points since before the shutdown, to 78 percent. Democrats’ negatives climbed three points to 65 percent.”
Similar polling results, combined with the encouragement he received from backers and his long-time desire to serve in Congress, caused Gainer to change his mind. His official announcement comes today, with the first stop at the Bluebird Café in downtown Clarksburg.
But Gainer has a long row to hoe. Republican David McKinley has worked hard to establish his hold in the 1st District, which covers the northern third of the state. He has already announced his plans to run for a third term and he has $1.2 million in his campaign fund.
Gainer has to get busy and raise a couple hundred thousand dollars so he can demonstrate to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that he will be a viable candidate. Gainer does not have enough personal wealth to finance a campaign so he will be spending a lot of time on the phone.
Both Gainer and McKinley are proven vote getters in the district. I checked the numbers last June when Gainer first started to think about running and found that their vote totals in the 20 1st District counties were separated by just three percent in the individual races in 2012,or 8,755 votes (133,809 for McKinley and 125,054 for Gainer).
Gainer has said he believes Wood County will be a key to the race. It’s his home county and he’s often the leading vote getter there, even though Republicans hold a slight edge in registration (21,511 Republicans, 20,301 Democrats, 11,960 Independent).
But Wood County has also been good to McKinley. In 2012, he received more votes in Wood (20,406) than any of the other 19 counties in the district.
Beyond Wood County, it is unlikely Gainer is very well known in the rest of the district, despite his 21 years as Auditor. Honestly, how many West Virginia voters really know—or care—who the auditor is.
So Gainer has plenty of work to do, while McKinley has to make sure voters in the Democratic leaning district view him differently than they do the Congress.