West Virginia is getting older, and that’s yet another discouraging piece of news for a state that faces myriad challenges.
A report by the WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research projects that West Virginia will be on a sustained population decline though 2030, losing nearly 20,000 residents.
The primary driver of the projected decline is simple demographics; the number of people dying is greater than the number being born. That creates a population that is gradually but steadily getting older.
WVU BBER director and study co-author Dr. John Deskins projects that the share of the state’s population that is over 65 will grow from 16 percent to 23 percent by 2030.
“A declining and aging population is one of our key long-run economic concerns in West Virginia,” Deskins said in a news release about the study. “A smaller working-age population may mean that fewer businesses would consider locating in the state since a smaller potential workforce would be available.”
Additionally, the University experts also say more people are moving out of the state than moving in, though the outward migration is a little trickier to predict because improvements in the state’s economy could slow the trend.
“The potential ethane cracker in Wood County could attract migration into the state, which could offset a portion of the anticipated natural population decline,” Deskins said.
The report does include a few bright spots. Berkeley and Jefferson counties in the eastern panhandle are growing rapidly and Monongalia County in north central West Virginia is adding population. However, only 11 of the state’s 55 counties will see population growth by 2030.
If the BBER projections hold true, West Virginia could lose yet another representative in Congress in the 2020 reapportionment. “This loss would leave West Virginia with just two seats in the House, down from a high of six before 1950,” the study says.
This report and others reflect the continuing economic conundrum in West Virginia; working age adults move out of the state to find better jobs, while investors shy away from West Virginia because of the dearth of trained professionals.