West Virginia statehouse races can be difficult to predict. There’s only limited polling, if any, and local races can be notoriously fickle. However, let’s take a crack at it. After reviewing some data and talking with plugged in Democratic and Republican operatives, here’s my at-the-moment take on the 17 state Senate races. Today, we’ll do the 1st through the 9th, tomorrow the 10th through the 17th.
—WV 1 (Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio): House of Delegates member Ryan Ferns switched to the Republican Party last year and decided to run for the state Senate. The seat is currently held by Democrat Rocky Fitzsimmons, who was appointed to the seat in 2012 to fill a vacancy. Observers have noted how gentlemanly this campaign has been (at least by today’s standards). This has turned into one of the most expensive Senate campaigns this year. Fitzsimmons has spent $112,000 so far in the Primary and General, compared with $84,000 for Ferns. Republican and Democratic observers are both confident of victory, so I’ll split the difference. Race rating: Toss-up.
—WV2 (Calhoun, Doddridge, Gilmer, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ritchie, Tyler, Wetzel): Democrat Larry Edgell has represented the 2nd since 1998 and rarely had much competition. That changes this year in the sprawling district with a challenge from Republican Kent Leonhardt and Constitution Party candidate Jeffrey Frank Jarrell. Edgell’s fundraising advantage–$134,000 to $82,000 for Leonhardt–and the incumbency would seem to give him the advantage. However, Leonhardt has one of the better ground operations this cycle and he gained name recognition when he ran unsuccessfully for Agriculture Commissioner two years ago. Also, some independent spending has come in against Edgell. All these factors leave prognosticators from both parties unsure of the outcome. Race rating: Toss-up.
—WV3 (Pleasants, Roane, Wirt, Wood): Republican David Nohe is seeking his second four-year term. The former long-time mayor of Vienna is well-known in the district, particularly in Wood County where the bulk of the votes are. Democratic challenger Robert “Robin” Wilson, Jr., has run a low budget effort—he had spent just $514 as of the end of September—campaigning against big corporations and pushing for solutions to climate change. Race Rating: Safe Republican/Nohe.
—WV4 (Jackson, Mason, Putnam, Roane): Republican incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Mike Hall is unopposed in his run for a third four-year term. Race rating: Safe Republican/Hall.
—WV5 (Cabell, Wayne): This is an open seat because Democrat-turned-Republican state Senator Evan Jenkins is running for Congress. Republican Vicki Dunn-Marshall is a successful businesswoman who owns pizza franchises and a real estate development company. Democrat Mike Woelfel is a well-known Huntington attorney and businessman. Independent Roy Ramey is also in the race. Republicans are very high on Dunn-Marshall, but the campaign has had trouble gaining traction, despite outspending Woelfel $172,000 to $63,000 through September. Race Rating: Lean Democrat/Woelfel.
—WV6 (McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Wayne): Incumbent Democrat Truman Chafin has served in the Senate since 1982. The Mingo County attorney is being challenged this year by Republican Mark Maynard, a Wayne County businessman. According to the Secretary of State’s website, Maynard has not raised or spent any money. That fact, combined with incumbency and heavy Democratic registration mean Chafin returns to Charleston for another term. Race Rating: Safe Democrat/Chafin.
—WV7 (Boone, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Wayne): Democrat incumbent Ron Stollings is seeking his third term. The practicing medical doctor from Boone County is part of the Senate leadership team, serving as chairman of the Senate Health and Human Resources Committee. Republican Gary Johngrass is a retired building contractor from West Hamlin. Like the 6th, this is a race that favors a better financed and well-known Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district. Race Rating: Safe Democrat/Stollings.
—WV8 (Kanawha, Putnam): Democrat incumbent Erik Wells has had to concentrate not only on his race, but also the U.S. Senate contest where his wife, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, is running against Shelley Moore Capito. Republicans are high on their candidate, Ed Gaunch, who built an insurance business and has been active in the Charleston community. Constitution candidate Mike Fisher is also in the race. As of the end of last month, Gaunch had raised almost twice as much money as Wells ($97,000 to $56,000) and the GOP believes this is a seat they can take, especially if there is a GOP wave. However, Wells is extremely well-known in the district and is a strong vote-getter on Election Day. Race Rating: Lean Democrat/Wells.
—WV9 (McDowell, Raleigh, Wyoming) This is one of the most expensive and bitter races of the cycle. Incumbent Democrat Mike Green and Republican challenger Jeff Mullins. Green used to work at Mullins’ business, Employers Innovative Network, before Green went out on his own. Mullins has spent a whopping $282,000 and Green is in for $153,000 through September. Mullins is well-known in Wyoming County where he was a standout basketball player. Green, however, knew he was in for a challenge and has campaigned hard. Again, this is one where each party believes their candidate is going to win. Race Rating: Toss-up.
Tomorrow, Senate Districts Ten through 17.