Handicapping West Virginia state Senate races (part two)

Here’s part two of my handicapping of state Senate races. Today, we’ll do the 10th through the 17th.

WV10 (Fayette, Greenbrier, Monroe, Summers): Democrat Ron Miller of Lewisburg is the incumbent, seeking his second term.  The farmer and Baptist minister is also a former Greenbrier County Circuit Clerk and so is well-known in the community.  Republicans recruited Duane Zobrist to challenge Miller.  Zobrist is an entrepreneur who founded the Falconry Academy at the Greenbrier Resort.  Zobrist has raised almost twice as much money as Miller ($84,000 to $48,000) and mounted an aggressive campaign. The GOP believes this is one they can pick off if there’s a Republican wave. Plus, there has been a surge of outside spending for Zobrist. Race rating: Toss-up.

WV11 (Grant, Nicholas, Pendleton, Pocahontas, Randolph, Upshur, Webster): Incumbent Democrat Greg Tucker is seeking his second term in this sprawling district.  He’s being challenged by Republican Robert Karnes, a small businessman from tiny Tallmansville in Upshur County.  Observers say Tucker appeared to be taking this race lightly until it became evident he was getting a serious challenge from Karnes, a Christian conservative who home schools his seven children.  Tucker has a big financial advantage; he has spent $71,000 as of last week, compared with $36,000 for Karnes.  Race rating: Lean Democrat/Tucker.

WV12 (Braxton, Clay, Gilmer, Harrison, Lewis): This is an open seat following the defeat of Democrat Sam Cann in the Primary Election by Clarksburg attorney and Harrison County Commissioner Mike Romano.   The Republican is Mike Queen, who earlier this year switched his registration from Democrat to Republican and resigned from the Harrison County School board to get in the race. Romano has spent a whopping $207,000 this election cycle (though a big chunk was in the tough primary against Cann). Queen has spent only $32,000 and is relying heavily on social media.   Race Rating: Lean Democrat/Romano.

WV13 (Marion, Monongalia):  Incumbent Democrat Bob Beach is seeking his second four-year term. Before being elected to the Senate, Beach spent ten years in the House, so he has name recognition in the district.   The Republican challenger is Kris Warner, a long-time activist in Republican politics who once served as the party chairman.  Warner has outraised Beach ($71,000 to $55,000) and campaigned hard to try to overcome the Democratic advantage in voter registration in the district.  American Freedom Party candidate Harry Bertram is also in the the race.  Race Rating: Lean Democrat/Beach.

WV14 (Barbour, Grant, Hardy, Mineral, Monongalia, Preston, Taylor, Tucker): Incumbent Republican Dave Sypolt is a land surveyor from Kingwood who is seeking his third term.  The Democrat challenger is Stan Shaver, a retired educator and former member of the House of Delegates.  The fundraising has been even ($32,000 for Sypolt and $29,000 for Shaver), but this is a Republican leaning district.  Race Rating: Lean Republican/Sypolt.

WV15 (Berkeley, Hampshire, Mineral, Morgan): Gov. Tomblin appointed Donald Cookman to this seat last January to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of Walt Helmick, who was elected Agriculture Commissioner.  Cookman, a Democrat, is a former long-time circuit judge in Hampshire County.   Charlie Trump is the Republican Challenger.  Trump, a Berkeley Springs attorney, served previously in the House of Delegates and rose to the position of Minority Leader, before taking a breather from politics a few years ago. Cookman has raised an astounding $176,000 compared with $93,000 for Trump, but this is a heavily Republican district. Dems are hoping for a surprise here.   Race Rating: Lean Republican/Trump. 

WV16 (Berkeley, Jefferson):  Democratic state Senate Majority Leader John Unger is seeking his fifth term.  The Republican challenger is Larry Faircloth.  Faircloth is a familiar political figure in the district. He has served in the House of Delegates and once ran for the GOP nomination for Governor.  The finance reports show Unger had raised $86,000, but only spent $1,800, perhaps indicating his confidence in again overcoming the slight Republican advantage in voter registration in Berkeley County.  Race Rating: Lean Democrat/Unger

WV17 (Kanawha): This is an open seat because of the retirement of long-time Democratic Senator Brooks McCabe.  Democratic House of Delegates member Doug Skaff is facing off against Republican Tom Takubo.  Takubo is a Charleston physician and Skaff is a businessman.  Skaff has outspent Takubo three to one ($118,000 to $38,000) and would be considered the heavy favorite. However, Skaff was picked up in Morgantown for DUI earlier this month, which could change the complexion of the race.   Mountain Party candidate Jesse Johnson is also on the ballot.  Race Rating: Toss-up. 

 





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