Political prognosticators, me included, are trying desperately to determine a lean in the two most competitive Congressional races in West Virginia. But with just five days to go, it’s difficult to see the Rahall-Jenkins race in WV-3 and the Casey-Mooney race in WV-2 as anything other than toss-ups.
If they are essentially even, what factors will come into play that will affect the outcomes?
WV-2 is an open seat because Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is running for the Senate. Neither Casey nor Mooney is that well-known, despite months of campaigning, so the generic ballot and coattails may come into play. Both of those favor Mooney.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenburg survey released Sunday found Republicans have a four point lead over Democrats (46% to 42%) on the question of which party should control Congress. That’s not a big margin, but it could make a difference in a tight election.
Additionally, Democrats in the 2nd have been getting a mixed message. When Casey was Democratic Party chairman in 2008, he supported Barack Obama, but he’s now essentially running against him. Will enough Democratic voters be enthused to go vote for Casey or will they just stay home and avoid the confusion?
But Mooney has the “carpetbagger” problem. West Virginians can be very parochial, which means some Republicans are struggling with Mooney’s Maryland roots. If, however, there is a Republican tide on Tuesday with Capito leading the way, it may carry Mooney as well.
The dynamic is somewhat different in WV-3. Everyone who is going to vote knows who Rahall is, and some of them have voted for the Democrat every two years since 1976. That makes the race more of a referendum on Rahall.
Rahall is saddled with Obama, but not everyone is going to tie them together. In 2012, Rahall got 40,000 more votes than Obama (108,000 to 68,000) in the district. Rahall has to hope those voters will make the same distinction this time.
But WV-3 Democrats, weighed down by Obama and lacking a strong candidate for Governor (not on the ballot this time) or U.S. Senate, may skip the election altogether.
Jenkins, meanwhile, will be watching closely what happens in Cabell, his home county. Rahall has consistently won the largest county in the district, but this year he’s facing an opponent from there. In 2010—the last time Jenkins was on the ballot as a state Senate candidate—he got almost 5,000 more votes than Rahall (18,210 to 13,725) in Cabell. But since then, Jenkins has switched parties.
Thank goodness the election is just a few days away. Sometime late Tuesday night, or perhaps early Wednesday morning, all of this will make sense.