The lingering question in West Virginia following last month’s election is whether we have become a red state. I believe we have, though it didn’t happen in one night. West Virginia has been trending red for nearly two decades.
However, it’s always helpful to get an outside observer’s view.
Derek Willis, who provides political and social analysis in the New York Times, weighed in a few days ago on West Virginia’s transformation. “Election night was bad for Democrats all over the country, but arguably there were few states where it was worse for their future—and better for Republicans—than West Virginia.” Read the article here.
He likens West Virginia to Arkansas, where Republicans won all four House of Representatives seats, a U.S. Senate seat and the Governor’s race. That reflects the growing trend of southern states becoming red.
Willis gives the GOP in West Virginia credit for fielding strong candidates, led by Congresswoman and now U.S. Senator-elect Shelley Moore Capito, who beat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant 62%-34%. Tennant received just 155,396 votes, less than half the amount she received in her successful Secretary of State race in 2012.
“That Ms. Tennant would not come close to her 2012 vote total was no surprise,” Willis wrote. “Without a presidential election at the top of the ballot, turnout would be lower, and Ms. Capito was a seasoned and well-funded opponent.”
Democrats still hold a significant registration advantage over Republicans—614,000 to 353,000—but what will the Democratic Party do to improve turnout? “Even with an open race for the presidency in two years, it’s doubtful that any Democratic hopeful could sway a large number of voters in state contests,” says Willis.
But perhaps the national party will have a candidate at the top of the ticket that is more palatable to conservative and moderate West Virginia Democrats, that is if party leaders are still interested in competing in states like West Virginia.
Willis doesn’t think that’s likely, especially if the national party continues its leftward tilt while Republicans put down political roots. “Now that Republicans have shown that they can win in individual districts around the state and statewide, it is difficult to see an immediate route to victory for Democrats at the Congressional level, and unless the candidate’s name is Manchin, their hold on the Governor’s seat may be tenuous as well.”
Those are not encouraging words for Democrats, especially from the New York Times. As I’ve pointed out before, the political paradigm in West Virginia is shifting, and now even the national media are taking note.