MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Despite a gold-plated conference RPI, the Big 12 hasn’t advanced a team to the Elite Eight the past two seasons.
In 2013, five teams made the field and netted a measly three wins. Though seven teams reached the NCAAs last season, only two survived to see the Sweet 16. In that respect, March has become One True Bummer.
“I think it is time for our league to step up,” said Kansas coach Bill Self after the Big 12 once again sent 70 percent of its members to the Dance this week. “We need to validate what everybody else has said about us all year long.”
What are the prospects of a Big 12 team actually being relevant in the late rounds? Here’s a team-by-team guess from the cheap seats:
No. 11 seed Texas (Midwest)
The long, tall, menacing Longhorns certainly pass the eyeball test—unless your eyes happen to wander across their record against RPI top-50 teams (3-13).
Sure UT is talented enough to reach the regional final vs. Kentucky, but if the chemistry and passion weren’t there for the past three months, I’m not banking on it magically galvanizing now.
Prediction: Lose in Round of 64 to Butler
No. 9 seed Oklahoma State (Midwest)
It’s probably not a good sign when your best 3-point shooter and second-leading scorer declines interview requests leading up to the NCAA tournament. Or maybe that simply allowed Phil Forte more time to work on his suddenly erratic 3-point stroke (9-of-33 in the past seven games).
Think Le’Bryan Nash can carry the Cowboys? He scored 27 in the Big 12 tournament against Oklahoma and his team lost by 15. That left OSU 1-6 down the stretch and 18-13 overall, yet somehow it avoided a double-digit seed.
Prediction: Lose in Round of 64 to Oregon
No. 5 seed West Virginia (Midwest)
Expect some cardio moments—and perhaps some cardiac ones as well—when the Mountaineers squash the upset brigade by eking past Buffalo on Friday. That sets up Sunday’s game against Maryland, which hasn’t played well away from home the past two months, and Nationwide Arena could feel like Morgantown West for that one.
Got a feeling the Terps get payback for Josh Lambert’s kick by winning a buzzer-beater.
Prediction: Lose in Round of 32 to Maryland
No. 3 seed Baylor (West)
First-round opponent Georgia State would be a sexy upset pick if not for an injury limiting point guard Ryan Harrow, the Sun Belt’s leading scorer after transferring from Kentucky, where he was a part of that NIT debacle at Robert Morris. The Panthers also are the second home for Kevin Ware, who’s proving there is basketball life after his gruesome leg injury at Louisville.
Take the Bears here and against inconsistent Xavier in the Round of 32, but that’s where the trail ends.
Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16 to Arizona
No. 3 seed Oklahoma (East)
Victims of North Dakota State and the 12-5 jinx last season, the Sooners haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2009. That drought should end against 13-point underdog Albany and its fleet of Aussie imports, but all bets are off if Oklahoma must face play-in darling Dayton in the Round of 32 in Columbus.
Lon Kruger’s club has two losses against teams outside the top 50 and two more outside the top 100, so even though Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield stokes a potent offense, these guys are vulnerable.
Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16 to Virginia
No. 3 seed Iowa State (South)
The last five games have shown no hole is too deep for the Cyclones to escape, providing the most intriguing stretch of turnarounds by any team anywhere. Those thrilling wins, and some well-deserved love for The Hoiberg Plug-n-Play Transfer System, makes Iowa State a hot pick to crash the Final Four.
Won’t happen.
This team was robbed by the refs in 2013 against Ohio State and robbed by fate last season when Georges Niang broke his foot. From an RPI standpoint, these Cyclones are as good or better, but they lack focus (see losses to South Carolina and Texas Tech) and have no interior defense if Jameel McKay gets in foul trouble.
Prediction: Lose in Round of 32 to SMU
No. 2 seed Kansas (West)
Expectations are unseasonably tempered for KU, with Perry Ellis playing on a wobbly knee, Cliff Alexander stuck in the NCAA waiting room and KU’s 3-point shooters in a seven-game funk (16-of-83).
The other three No. 2 seeds averaged nearly 31 wins, while Kansas has only 26—and Bob Huggins still contends it should be 25. It’s a flawed team that will slide past New Mexico State before struggling to survive a Sunflower Showdown versus Wichita State. Beating the Shockers will have to be consolation enough.
Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16 to Notre Dame.