The overriding political question currently in West Virginia is, “What’s Joe Manchin going to do?”
The Democratic U.S. Senator and former two-term governor continues to flirt with the idea of running for a third term as governor. Manchin loved being the state’s chief executive and has openly expressed his frustration with the glacial pace and partisanship of Washington.
He says he’ll make a decision by Memorial Day whether to return to state politics or run for a second full Senate term in 2018 (Manchin was first elected to the Senate in November 2010 to serve the remaining 14 months of Sen.Robert Byrd’s term, then re-elected in 2012).
New polls released this week—one by Manchin himself—fueled the “Manchin-for-Governor” talk even more.
Manchin’s polling firm, Global Strategy Group, released numbers showing the Senator holding a 60-30 edge over Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in a possible 2016 governor’s race. The poll also showed 66 percent of West Virginians have a positive image of Manchin, compared with just 26 percent who view him unfavorably. Morrisey had no comment on the poll.
Meanwhile, the Republican polling firm Harper Polling also released similar numbers: Manchin at 56 percent, Morrisey with 29 percent and 13 percent undecided.
The Harper poll also has Manchin ahead of Republican Congressman David McKinley by a 52 percent to 35 percent margin, with 12 percent undecided, and ahead of Republican Senator Bill Cole 54 percent to 32 percent, with 14 percent undecided.
However, if Manchin is NOT in the race, the Harper poll finds “all three Republicans either tie or lead the other two potential Democratic nominees, Jeff Kessler and Booth Goodwin. The Democrat and Republican candidates are in a virtual tie on the generic ballot question.
But back to Manchin’s poll for a moment. The commissioning and release of the private poll is another indication of Manchin’s interest in running for governor again. The conventional wisdom would be that he is laying the groundwork for just such a campaign.
However, Manchin always likes to hold the best cards. As long as everyone knows he has a sizable statistical advantage if he runs for governor, he keeps potential opponents of both parties off-balance. As Fox News digital politics editor Chris Stirewalt said, “It’s good politics to do the ‘fake out.’”
Perhaps it’s also a way for Manchin to reassure himself and others that he’s a big dog, especially given the dominant victory of Republican Shelley Moore Capito over Democrat Natalie Tennant in the 2014 Senate race.
One Republican strategist bristled over the wording of Manchin’s polling memo, which said the Senator was “the most popular elected official in West Virginia.” The strategist wondered then why Capito wasn’t included in the polling. (“They should have said ‘the most popular Democrat,'” said the strategist.)
Regardless, the Manchin factor dominates as the shuffle continues in the 2016 governor’s race. The contest runs through him, if he chooses.