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Early season upset alerts for Big 12 football teams in 2015

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — In a league “psychologically disadvantaged” by its own admission, should the Big 12 be mindful of early-season upsets this football season? After all, its hottest teams (TCU and Baylor) couldn’t crack the college football playoff, and the AD at its richest school is jonesing to play a game in Dubai where his lack of a quarterback won’t be so noticeable.

In today’s exercise we ambition to spot nonconference vulnerabilities—and not the type where Oklahoma stumbles in Knoxville or Texas gets bent in South Bend. We’re seeking out the utter embarrassments, the inexplicable PR nightmares, the losses that lead to players-only meetings, boosters getting grouchy and fans swearing off season ticket renewals.

Within those parameters, we offer up four potential ambush jobs that could dent the Big 12’s reputation in 2015:

Sam Houston State at Texas Tech, Sept. 5
Ten years have passed since the Red Raiders went full-Leach and sprinkled 80 points on the Bearkats. Current coach Kliff Kingsbury sometimes radiates an in-over-his-head vibe and must prove that losing 13 of his last 18 games isn’t a beautiful man’s cry for help.

Sam Houston State returns almost everybody from the 2014 Southland Conference title team that rolled to the FCS national semifinals. And don’t forget that one of Texas Tech’s rare wins last season was a squeaker over far more mediocre Southland member, Central Arkansas.

Northern Iowa at Iowa State, Sept. 5
We might have targeted the Cyclones’ game at Toledo in Week 3, but it doesn’t qualify, considering Iowa State likely will be a touchdown underdog in that one. So we’ll focus our upset periscope on the opener.

Paul Rhoads needn’t win big to pacify the folks in Ames, but he certainly needs to beat the FCS teams on his schedule, something he hasn’t done the past two years. In 2013, you’ll recall, UNI won 28-20 in Ames. Embarrassing, but at least that one was close—not so Iowa State’s 34-14 loss to North Dakota State in 2014.

Georgia Southern at West Virginia, Sept. 5
For a lengthy stretch Georgia Southern was terrific, we’re talking North Dakota State-terrific, winning six I-AA national titles from 1985 to 2000 (and tacking on six more conference crowns in the years subsequent). Then came last season’s long-awaited climb into FBS territory, where the Eagles carved through the Sun Belt at 8-0 and only missed out on a bowl game because of NCAA transition-year rules that sound like something Putin created.

There are a few holdovers from the 2013 team that stunned Florida in the Swamp, and many more who felt the sting of last-minute losses last season at NC State (24-23) and Georgia Tech (42-38).

Exploiting the option attack, GSU’s 381.1 rushing yards per game led the country in 2014, which has WVU defensive coordinator Tony Gibson peeking ahead this summer. After all, Matt Breida averaged 8.7 yards per carry and even quarterback Kevin Elison broke the 1,000-yard mark.

If Skyler Howard and his revamped receiving crew start sluggishly, and the Eagles’ misdirection-heavy running game controls tempo, this one could have Mountaineers fans on edge.

Louisiana Tech at Kansas State, Sept. 19
Both teams are uncertain who’ll play quarterback, a variable that in itself sets the dashboard blinking. The best bet for Tech is Florida transfer Jeff Driskel, who no longer carries the hate-weight of Gator Nation or the three-and-out curse of playing QB for Will Muschamp.

K-State’s most talented option, juco signee Jonathan Banks, enrolled only after spring practice and may not be comfortable operating the offense even by this Week 3 matchup.

For what it’s worth, Louisiana Tech also plays on Thursday the previous week, affording two extra days of preparation. Not that 48 additional hours suddenly will square Skip Holtz with Bill Snyder, but it could mitigate the furlongs of wizardry in between.