Handicapping 2016 WV Senate races

Yes, the 2016 General Election is still more than a year away, but several state Senate races are already taking shape.  Seventeen of the 34 seats are up, and we’ll be talking a lot more about all those races in the months ahead, but here are my top six as of today. Updated as of 1:35p with new information. 

WV 1 (Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio): Incumbent Senator Jack Yost (D-Brooke) is expected to seek a third term, though he has been understandably distracted since his son, Jay, suffered a serious workplace accident last January. Yost enjoys heavy labor support, and holding this seat is critical for the Democratic Party as it tries to erase the Republican’s 18-16 advantage.  However, Yost could have a stiff challenge if Republican Delegate Ryan Weld (R-Brooke) decides to get in the race. Yost has the advantage of the incumbency, but the GOP points to Republican Senator Ryan Ferns victory in the same district two years ago as an encouraging sign. (Each district has two seats, with one up for election every two years.)

WV 2 (Calhoun, Doddridge, Gilmer, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ritchie, Tyler,Wetzel): This huge district is an open seat in 2016 because of Senator Jeff Kessler’s (D-Marshall) decision to run for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Neither the Democratic nor Republican Party has locked down a viable candidate yet for this critical swing seat, though Kessler’s brother, Marshall County Assessor Chris Kessler is considering a run. Republican House of Delegates member Woody Ireland (R-Ritchie) is also thinking about running. The district went Republican in the 2014 election when Republican Kent Leonhardt defeated long-time incumbent Democrat Larry Edgell for the second seat.

WV 6 (McDowell, Mercer, Mingo, Wayne): Just like WV 2, this is an open seat in 2016 because incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cole is running for Governor.  No Republican has signed up yet, but one GOP source says the party is close to firming up a candidate.  On the Democratic side, Princeton attorney Rocky Seay has filed to run and Delegate Justin Marcum (D-Mingo) has announced his candidacy, while former Senator Truman Chafin (D-Mingo) is seriously considering running again after getting upset by Mark Maynard (R-Wayne) in 2014.   Redistricting a few years ago gives an advantage to candidates from Mercer County.

WV 11 (Grant, Nicholas, Pendleton, Pocahontas, Randolph, Upshur, Webster): This district has been trending Republican based on how it has voted in statewide races and the election of Robert Karnes (R-Upshur) over incumbent Greg Tucker (D-Nicholas) in the 2014 Senate race.  The second seat is now held by Greg Boso (R-Nicholas), who was appointed earlier this year to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Clark Barnes, who left the seat to take a position as Senate Clerk.  Boso is up for his first election in the district next year and Democrats see the 11th as a possible pick-up. Delegate Denise Campbell (D-Randolph) says she is seriously considering getting in the race as is Randolph County insurance agent Jonathan Kyle.

WV 14 (Barbour, Grant, Hardy, Mineral, Monongalia, Preston, Taylor, Tucker): Republicans have been pressuring Senator Bob Williams (D-Taylor) to switch parties, but the conservative Democrat has resisted and is expected to run for re-election.  He’ll likely get a Republican challenge from Delegate Randy Smith (R-Preston), who will have to move from Preston to another county in the district—probably Tucker–to make the run because there is already a Senator from Preston, Republican Dave Sypolt.  The district has been trending heavily Republican and Sypolt got 65 percent of the vote against Democrat Stan Shaver in 2014.

WV 16 (Berkeley, Jefferson): Democratic Senator Herb Snyder’s decision not to run for re-election makes the 16th a battleground for the Democratic and Republican Parties as they scramble for control of the Senate. Delegate Stephen Skinner (D-Jefferson) immediately jumped in the race after Snyder announced his retirement.  Skinner could get a Primary challenge from Tiffany Lawrence, who lost her House of Delegates seat in 2014. On the Republican side, Patricia Rucker, who lost by just 133 votes to Skinner in the 67th delegate district race in 2014, signed up last January to run for the Senate in 2016.  But now Rucker has a Primary opponent. Delegate Paul Espinosa (R-Jefferson) announced last week he’s running for the seat.

Tomorrow, the best of the rest.

 

 





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