These 2015 over/unders make the perfect hors d’oeuvres for opening week

KJ Dillon (9) spearheads a veteran West Virginia defense, but can it hold up in some of the Big 12’s toughest venues?

 

COMMENTARY

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — In homage to Wayne Dyer’s passing this weekend, I tried “Escaping the Trap of Negative Thinking” with regard to West Virginia’s football season. It didn’t work.

Sure, this bunch could be entertaining enough, and the defense might remind us of how West Virginia used to stop teams. But that itchy feeling won’t depart and I can’t talk myself into anything better than 7-5, with 6-6 looming as a strong option.

Check out the over/under guesses below. Tell me if I’m correct or merely stuck in the erroneous zones:

Road wins: 1.5
(UNDER) The first three road trips—at Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU—are doozies, with West Virginia projected as a double-digit underdog in each. We’ll presume a victory at Kansas on Nov. 21, even with the goal posts from 2013 still submerged nearby in Potter’s Lake. That leaves the season finale at Kansas State as the swing week. Because of WVU’s 8-11 record away from Morgantown since joining the Big 12, and its 0-3 mark vs. the Wizard of Windbreakers, we’re not confident.

Turnover margin: Even
(OVER) It defied comprehension that West Virginia recovered only two fumbles last season (after forcing 13). The resulting minus-15 turnover margin left the Mountaineers 119th nationally and Tony Gibson wondering if his guys were suddenly allergic to loose balls. An offseason emphasis on secondary tacklers stripping ballcarriers might help, but luck and hustle should also turn around this mercurial stat. “We’ve got to catch the interceptions you can catch,” Gibson said. “And when the ball’s on the ground you’ve got to get it.”

Touchdown passes for Skyler Howard: 26
(UNDER) From 2005 at Texas Tech through Geno Smith’s senior season in 2012, Holgorsen’s offenses averaged more than 40 passing TDs per year. The past two seasons, West Virginia has averaged only 21. Howard’s eight touchdowns in eight quarters show he’s capable of producing, or at least he was with Kevin White and Mario Alford burning up the outside. Expect some passing-game drop-off this fall as a retooled receiving unit develops.

Rushel Shell could have approached 1,000 yards in 2014 if not for a midseason ankle injury.

Rushing yards for Rushel Shell: 1,000
(OVER) I’m buying it. He put up 788 yards last season despite missing chunks of four games with a high-ankle sprain. If he’s healthier and West Virginia reaches the postseason, he’d only need 77 yards per game to do it, Plus Dana Holgorsen has shown such a proclivity to run the ball that he essentially disowned the “Air Raid” nickname.

On-air references to “Morgantown, Virginia”: 1
(PUSH) There’s no stronger case for Common Core than TV broadcasters failing to realize West Virginia IS actually its own state. (Has been since 1863.) I personally believe society turned brain-dead on U.S. geography when computers began auto-filling the location when you typed in a zip code. Clearly more government regulation is needed: If the FCC can fine CBS for Janet Jackson’s nip-slip, the talking heads should fork over a few bucks for not knowing what state they’re talking from.

Total catches by first-year receivers: 50
(OVER) The future beams bright for sophomore juco transfer Ka’Raun White and freshmen Jovan Durante and Gary Jennings. None are necessarily expected to start, but all should cycle into the rotation after Holgorsen vowed during camp, “They ain’t redshirting.” Receivers coach Lonnie Galloway said he’d like to see one of them catch 100 balls, but based on recent history, half that number will have to do for the collective. Among WVU’s recent freshmen, Tavon Austin made only 15 catches, Jordan Thompson had 13 and Shelton Gibson caught four. Only Daikiel Shorts, with 45 receptions, made a rookie splash.

West Virginia sacks: 22
(OVER) We set the sack line only two above what West Virginia registered last year, when it ranked 99th nationally and next-to-last in the Big 12. There’s no hard evidence the pass rush will be improved: after all, 2014’s sack leader Shaq Riddick is now an Arizona Cardinal. Even with juco transfer Larry Jefferson trying to fill that void, WVU’s defensive line talent still ranks among the league’s bottom-half. So why predict an uptick? Because linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski will find more pass-rush opportunities after moving outside, and WVU’s second-level blitzers should be cagier and more productive in Year 2 of Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 system. Expect KJ Dillon, who whiffed on too many unblocked blitzes, to play with more control and have more success taking down QBs.

Red-zone TD percentage: 52 percent
(OVER) West Virginia’s over-reliance on Josh Lambert made the kicker a Groza finalist, though Holgorsen would rather see him kicking PATs than field goals. How does this season’s offense finish more drives despite missing Kevin White’s high-leaping big body on endzone fade routes? West Virginia could compensate in goal-line situations with mobile quarterbacks Howard and William Crest. After all Crest, in less than one half of action last season, finished with as many rushing TDs as Trickett.

Offensive touches for Wendell Smallwood: 253
(UNDER) The preseason refrain centered on him being more advanced as a junior than Charles Sims was a fifth-year senior. Well, Sims carried 208 times and caught 45 passes in 2013, a busy season in which WVU’s offense had little else working. Similar issues exist this time with the search underway for go-to receivers, potential holes dotting the O-line, and a quarterback greeting his first season as a full-time starter. While Smallwood may be WVU’s most versatile and reliable playmaker, he’s unlikely to get as many carries as Shell and shouldn’t approach Sims’ workload. That’s not a bad thing.

Points allowed per game: 20.6
(OVER) That’s precisely a touchdown better than West Virginia surrendered last season, when it finished 72nd in scoring defense. Reasons to believe in such an improvement? That glut of upperclassmen. A less-imposing nonconference schedule. The inevitable year-to-year swing in turnover margin. Reasons to be skeptical? After holding Baylor and TCU to their 2014 scoring lows, I’m not sold on Gibson’s unit repeating the trick in Waco and Fort Worth.

West Virginia senior safety Karl Joseph (8) has been a tackling machine seemingly since his first college game.

 

Solo tackles by Karl Joseph: 41
(OVER) It would give him 234 career solos, surpassing Barrett Green as WVU’s all-time leader among defensive backs. Barring injury, this is an easy one. The ironman Joseph has averaged 64 solos per season.

True freshmen used on defense: 2
(UNDER) None currently appear on the two-deep and Gibson said last week, “I don’t see any of them making the bus.” So plentiful are the upperclassmen that newcomers aren’t even required on special-teams coverage units. Should injuries necessitate a freshman call-up, safety Kevin Williams and linebacker David Long appear to be the most game-ready.

Times QB coach Michael Burchett will be mistaken for a true freshman: 5
(PUSH) Conceivably could happen every road game.

Regular-season wins: 8
(UNDER) We’re referencing the over/under provided by the sportsbook 5Dimes in May (doubters have since pushed West Virginia’s line down to seven wins). Most everybody expects a 3-0 start, but posting a winning record in the conference looks dicey, made tougher by the Mountaineers facing an odd-year five-game road schedule.





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