There is increasing evidence that West Virginia is now a red state… and an angry one at that. It comes from the first edition of the Metronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research.
Most promising for Republicans, and in turn discouraging for Democrats, is that when likely voters are asked if they think it would be better to have a Democrat or Republican as the next president, almost half (48 percent) say Republican, while only 28 percent say Democrat. 24 percent were not sure.
Not even Democrats are enthusiastic about their party’s presidential candidate (in a generic sense). The poll shows only 47 percent of self-identified Democrats say they would like to see one of their own win the presidency in 2016. “The only voter block with a majority of support for returning a Democrat to the White House in 2016 are self-proclaimed liberals (68 percent),” according to pollster Rex Repass.
Those are debilitating numbers for West Virginia Democratic candidates who, up until the last few elections, could always count on their presidential candidate leading the ticket and producing down-ballot support. But the leftward shift of the national party, President Obama’s unpopularity here and the administration’s policies toward coal and natural gas have created serious headwinds for West Virginia Democrats, especially those who lean more moderate to conservative.
President Obama’s approval ratings, already in the tank for years in the Mountain State, have dropped even lower. The Metronews West Virginia Poll shows 71 percent of likely voters disapprove of the job he’s doing–up from 63 percent last year–while only 24 percent approve (five percent are not sure).
“When the President’s approval ratings are analyzed, only his most ardent supporters give him favorable ratings (liberals–56 percent),” says Repass. Obama even has a negative rating of 39 percent among Democrats, and just a 30 percent favorable rating among 18-34 year-olds, an important Obama demographic in 2012.
Meanwhile, there is almost universal agreement in West Virginia that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Our poll shows that 76 percent believe the country is on the wrong track, compared with 65 percent nationally (according to a July NBC/WSJ Poll). Just 16 percent of West Virginians say the country is headed the right way.
The pessimism about the country is widespread. “All demographics including self-proclaimed liberals, registered Democrats, males, females, and by every age category, a majority see the nation heading in the wrong direction/off on the wrong track.”
(Editor’s note: At 10:06 a.m., we will post poll numbers in the Governor’s race. The Metronews West Virginia Poll is based on interviews conducted between August 19-30, with a sample of 400 West Virginia residents age 18 and over. Multiple data collection methods have been used to conduct the Poll including random digit dialing, landline phone, cell phone, and opt-in Internet panel. Screening qualifications include West Virginia residency, current voter registration, and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 General Election. The Poll has an overall statistical error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.)