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What the UMWA endorsement means for Jim Justice

The United Mine Workers union has endorsed Democratic candidate Jim Justice for Governor. This is a significant early endorsement for Justice, but what does it really mean?

In political campaigns, it’s better to have endorsements than not, as long as the views of the organization making the endorsement generally align with voters who tend to support the candidate.  An endorsement can add credibility to the candidate.

The endorsement is a blow to Senator and Gubernatorial candidate Jeff Kessler (D-Marshall).  He has worked hard to establish himself as the labor candidate and an endorsement from the UMWA would have helped. Kessler tried to get the jump on Justice by announcing earlier in the day that his campaign has received the “first labor endorsement of the gubernatorial campaign.”

Every vote counts, but the Bricklayers District Council is not as significant as the UMWA.

But now Justice, who Forbes says is worth $1.65 billion and owns the luxurious Greenbrier Resort, has the backing of an organization associated with lunch buckets and hard, physical labor. Thursday’s announcement in Charleston featured UMWA President Cecil Roberts, who has said the national Democratic Party has forgotten about people who take a shower at the end of the workday, standing with the wealthiest man in the state.

While important, endorsements aren’t what they used to be.

Politically active organizations, particularly labor unions, cannot deliver the votes like they once did.  The UMWA’s membership in West Virginia remains substantial (7,000 active, 35,000 retired), but is declining.  Mechanization, the downward trend of the industry and pressure from non-union operations have all cut into the UMWA’s numbers.

Slates of favored candidates have faded as voters have become more independent and campaigns have become more nationalized.  Voters are less loyal to a particular organization, or even a political party.  For example, the number of state voters registered as independent or third party has risen from 39,000 in 1994 to 233,000, or 19 percent, today.

Labor’s declining influence in the state is reflected in a recent Metronews West Virginia Poll.  The survey found that voters favored a right-to-work law—anathema to unions—by an overwhelming margin (60% to 23%, with 17% not sure).

Still, Rex Repass of Repass Research, which conducts the Metronews West Virginia Poll, says the UMWA endorsement will benefit Justice, especially in the Primary.

“Union endorsements can have an impact on voter turnout and support for a challenger. And in the Primary, Justice is essentially a challenger or an outsider,” Repass said.  “However, my sense is the UMWA endorsement will have little effect in the outcome of the General Election.  Union membership is down in the state, plus the Republican strategy will be to align whoever the Democratic gubernatorial nominee is with the energy policies of President Obama and Hillary Clinton.”

And therein lies the real challenge for whoever wins the Democratic nomination, and no endorsement will change that.

 

 





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