The most recent editions of the MetroNews West Virginia Poll give us a snapshot-in-time of the lean of West Virginia voters in two key races heading into tomorrow’s Primary Election.
In the Presidential race, the poll has Donald Trump with the support of 57 percent of Republican and independent voters, while Hillary Clinton has drawn to within four points (47-43) of Bernie Sanders, with just four percent undecided.
In the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor, Jim Justice leads Booth Goodwin 32 percent to 27 percent and Jeff Kessler 32 percent to 23 percent, with 18 percent undecided.
But it’s also worth taking a closer look at some of the cross-tabs to see what else West Virginia voters are thinking about the candidates in those races.
–Sanders’ strength here, just as it is in other parts of the country, is with young voters. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters in the Democratic Primary ages 18 to 34 say they support Sanders, while just 37 percent support Clinton. But Clinton does better with older voters, with 56 percent of those 65 and older backing her and just 31 percent for Sanders.
–Sanders is also significantly stronger here with voters who are not affiliated with any party. Three out of every four of those likely voters (72 percent) say they plan to vote for Sanders.
–Of those likely to vote in the Republican Primary, Trump is strong in nearly every major subgroup. He’s above 50 percent with women and men, independents, and all age groups (except 18-24 where he has the backing of 47 percent). He’s particularly strong among those with no party affiliation, where 68 percent support him.
–Jim Justice’s strength among likely voters in the Democratic Primary is among older, more conservative voters. Sixty-two percent of self-proclaimed conservative Democrat and independent voters say they will vote for him Tuesday, while just 18 percent support Goodwin and eight percent Kessler. Forty-three percent of voters 65 and older back Justice. However, younger and more liberal voters are more inclined to back Goodwin or Kessler.
–As always, what groups actually turn out have a direct impact on the outcomes. If Sanders has motivated younger, more liberal voters and independents to show up, that will provide down ballot help for Goodwin and Kessler. But if more older voters go to vote, as they typically do, Justice will extend his lead on Election Day.
–A reminder that MetroNews will provide live, continuous election coverage starting at 7:06 p.m. and you can follow the results as they come in at wvmetronews.com.