The latest edition of the MetroNews West Virginia Poll has Democrat Jim Justice leading Republican Bill Cole 46 percent to 32 percent. Mountain Party candidate Charlotte Pritt is at eight percent, while Libertarian David Moran is at five percent, with nine percent undecided.
These numbers have caused a lot of debate in political circles. Cole campaign spokesman Kent Gates disputes the findings. “There were three reputable polls conducted during the same time period with a larger sample size and better methodology that show the race for Governor between three and four percent.”
Gates did not identify the polls, but we know the Republican Governor’s Association, which is pumping money into the race, has been polling. The Justice campaign believes their candidate has a double digit lead, though not as much as 14 points.
There’s a big difference between four points and fourteen points, but there’s no dispute that Justice, who has led from the start of the campaign, is still in front and Cole’s window for making up that ground closes just a little each day.
A deeper dive into the MetroNews West Virginia Poll gives hints about the challenges Cole faces.
Even though West Virginia has been turning red, Democrats still hold a distinct advantage in party registration. The state has 573,829 Democrats, 380,527 Republicans and 258,853 independents. Cole needs to get nearly all the Republican votes, along with a chunk of independents and Democrats. However, our poll shows he’s falling short there.
The MetroNews West Virginia Poll shows Cole with 62 percent of the Republicans, but Justice is getting 20 percent from the GOP. Additionally, Cole is getting only 35 percent of the independents while Justice has 28 percent.
As a comparison, Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump is much stronger in those categories. He has the backing of 82 percent of registered Republican voters and 53 percent of independents. Hillary Clinton has just 14 percent of independents in West Virginia and seven percent of the GOP voters.
Trump also has support from 27 percent of the state’s Democratic voters, while just 11 percent of those same voters back Cole.
This is one of Cole’s biggest problems. Despite the fact that he has endorsed Trump, he’s not fully capitalizing on Trump’s support in West Virginia. Additionally, the poll shows Justice, who has refused to endorse Clinton, is not being weighed down significantly by her lack of support here.