MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — With less than 100 days until Election Day, Cook Political Report senior editor Jennifer Duffy says the U.S. Senate contest in West Virginia is anyone’s race to win.
“Maybe the bottom line here is we have a long way to go,” she said on Tuesday’s MetroNews “Talkline.”
The Cook Political Report rates the contest between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Republican West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey as a “toss-up.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election rating organization at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved the Senate race last week from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
While Manchin leads in recent polls, Duffy said a clear leader has not emerged.
“I reevaluate these races every week, and if I see Manchin start developing a real advantage outside the margin of error, then we’re going to move that race. It isn’t there yet,” she said.
The Cook Political Report has five Senate seats currently held by Democrats in the “toss-up” category: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia.
Duffy said Manchin’s chances at reelection would be damaged if he votes against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. She added voters could take that possible vote as Manchin supporting the agenda of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., over that of President Donald Trump.
Individuals and groups have already criticized Manchin for his votes last year against efforts to repeal and replace the federal health care law as well as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
“It would definitely bolster that case,” Duffy said. “Not so much that he sides with Schumer; it’s that he votes against Trump.”
Morning Consult reports Trump’s approval rating in West Virginia is at 62 percent, the second-highest rate in the country behind Wyoming.
According to statistics website FiveThirtyEight, Manchin has voted in line with Trump’s agenda more than 60 percent of the time.
Manchin met with Kavanaugh on Monday, the first Democrat to hold such discussion. While he called the meeting “productive,” the senator did not announce a decision regarding a vote on confirmation.
“I will not make a final decision on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination until I complete a thorough and fair examination of his candidacy in order to decide whether he should hold the position of Associate Justice on the highest court in the land, just as I did with Neil Gorsuch,” he said.
Manchin voted last year to confirm Gorsuch to the high court, one of three red-state Democrats to support the confirmation.
The other two Democrats — Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana — are also running for reelection this year.
As for Morrisey, Duffy said there is a “decent file” of opposition research on him, including his experience as a lobbyist, his wife’s position with a Washington, D.C.-lobbying firm and his upbringing in New Jersey.
“I don’t think Morrisey was the strongest candidate they could have nominated,” she said. “He’s certainly not the weakest. That would have been [former coal executive Don] Blankenship.”
During the Republican Senate primary, Morrisey’s opponents attacked him for his lobbying ties and his New Jersey roots. Four of the five Republicans later endorsed Morrisey for the general election contest, with Blankenship opting to run for the seat representing the Constitution Party.
Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr. have given boosts to Morrisey; Pence spoke highly of the attorney general during a speech last week in Wheeling, while the president’s eldest son has been involved in two fundraisers for Morrisey, including one event in New York City.
“I think that Trump Jr.’s role in raising money here is very helpful. Whether that translates into direct votes, maybe not,” she said. “It pays for ads, and that’s helpful.”
Duffy said she expects the president and vice president will be active ahead of the election, but their actions closest to Election Day will have the most impact.
“The one thing that we have seen with this president is he doesn’t necessarily have to show up. He can tweet, and we’ve seen that have some impact in primaries, so I assume he is going to use social media to that effect,” she said. “It has proven effective in primaries. We just don’t have a general election to measure it by yet.”
Blankenship told reporters last week Trump’s tweet against him a day before the primary election ruined his chance at being the Republican Party candidate.
“I was ahead in some polls by 10 points and by 18 in others before the president came out on the morning before the election,” he said. “There’s not much more I can do in 24 hours.”
Duffy said Trump’s tweet likely did impact the primary.
“Welcome to the First Amendment,” she said. “All is fair in love and tweeting.”
West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner denied Blankenship’s petition to run for Senate, citing the state’s “sore loser” law. The statute prevents individuals who lose a primary election from changing their party to run in the general election.
The Blankenship campaign said Tuesday Blankenship’s attorneys will file a brief challenging Warner’s decision “in the near future.”