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Economic forecaster sees volatility in state’s economy moving forward

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — The picture of West Virginia’s economy has improved over the past five years but the future remains uncertain, an economic forecaster said on Wednesday’s MetroNews ‘Talkline.’

Brian Lego, the WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research’s Economic Forecaster discussed his new forecast while previewing the West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference taking place next week in Charleston.

He said much of the state’s improvement has been driven by specific segments of the economy.

Brian Lego

“One being the energy industry, a bump in coal production and natural gas production,” Lego said. “Those two lynchpins of the state’s energy sector has shown signs of improvement.”

Lego said the full forecast, which will be released on October 9 at the conference inside the Embassy Suites, will show much volatility in the future because of how energy-dependent the state’s economy is.

“It’s a commodity-based industry and it tends to see a lot of volatility,” Lego said. “Given what has occurred over the past several years, how things declined over that period. Just seeing this volatility take hold coming off a period of improved performance, it’s an unwelcomed thing to see.”

Lego added they see industries begin to taper off in the next five years as questions about pipelines arise during judicial logjams with cases. The Mountain Valley pipeline in Greenbrier County has seen work pause several times with court hearings and protestors along with the Atlantic Coast pipeline that is proposed to run through three states including West Virginia.

The backdrop for demand is strong enough in the natural gas industry in the state that a low price environment continuing will not be enough for the economy, according to Lego.

While pipelines and the natural gas industry is certainly one of the major talking points when it comes to the state’s economy, Lego said the conference in Charleston will focus on the fundamentals of the state’s economy.

“Normally we talk about specific industries but the conference will be about human capital,” he said.

Lego added isolation of some areas of the state and infrastructure can hold an economy back. He warned improving those cannot take place overnight but need long term solutions.





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