The Democratic Party’s domination of the two U.S. Senate seats in West Virginia for the last half-century has created an orderly, albeit glacier-paced, succession process.
Senators Robert Byrd and Jennings Randolph held forth steadily from 1958 until 1984. In 1984, Randolph retired, clearing the way for Jay Rockefeller, who was looking to Washington after finishing his second term as Governor.
When Byrd died in 2010, then-Governor Joe Manchin was positioned as the next in line.
This continuity kept the state’s leading Democrats from beating each other up in Primary Elections. That helped the Democratic Senators fend off the occasional serious Republican challenger.
But it also kept potentially promising Democrats at the end of the bench. For five decades, the prized U.S. Senate seats were not available to Democratic candidates with higher aspirations.
However, Senator Rockefeller’s announcement last Friday that he’s not running for re-election in 2014 has shaken up conventionality. West Virginia Democrats have an open shot at a Senate seat for the first time since 1958 (the year both Byrd and Randolph won election).
So, who’s ready for prime time?
If there were a line, West Virginia Congressman Nick Rahall would have to be near the front. Rahall first won election to the House of Representatives in southern West Virginia in 1976 and has won re-election every two years since.
Rahall’s office says a possible run is “under consideration,” but he would have to give up his House seat in the process and have his opponent pore over a long voting record.
Charleston attorney Carte Goodwin served briefly in the U.S. Senate when Manchin appointed him following the death of Senator Byrd and only until a special election could be held. Goodwin and his family are well-connected politically, but he’s never run for statewide office before.
Goodwin would be a fresh face, someone who does not have a record he has to defend. But without personal wealth he would have to raise lots of money, especially since he’s not well know statewide.
State Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis has always had one eye on the Senate or a federal judgeship. She has statewide name recognition, but she would have to resign her seat on the court the moment she announced she’s running.
Davis has personal wealth (her husband, Scott Segal, is a successful trial lawyer), but Davis has just come through a rigorous campaign for re-election. Does she want to now get into a tougher race?
Democratic sources say that Ralph Baxter wants to run for the seat. Baxter is a successful attorney who is retiring as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Orrick, Herrington and Sutcliffe, an international law firm based in San Francisco.
Baxter has been active in West Virginia politics and public service, and now with his retirement, he’s expressed an interest in running for office.
Naturally, there are other names circulating, and ultimately none of those mentioned here may decide to run. A U.S. Senate race, even in a small state, is a serious and expensive undertaking.
And looming for the Democratic nominee is a likely General Election race with Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, who has already announced she’s running.
The Democratic Party may end up holding the seat, but the long standing succession process has come to an end.
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Comments
ShinnstonGuy
In the spirit of Captain Q, I'll make a prediction:
-Rahall doesn't even try. He's been in Washington so long he is already taking flack from his District, and he isn't known outside of the South.
-None of the "new" Dems will stand a chance because of what you have said here Hoppy--they have been out of the limelight due to the long careers of past Senators.
-Capito will win this one easy. She is personable and seems to have a good head on her shoulders. She is also a Republican at the right time in West Virginia, in which an aging state has forgotten the value of unions (in some cases justifiably) and is out-of-touch with the current President (who is a Dem)
Happy Wednesday!
January 16, 2013 at 6:35 am | Report comment
CaptainQ
Thanks for the shoutout, ShinnstonGuy!
However, I think the GOP would be remiss to underestimate the strength of the Democratic Party in WV. Due to the factors mentioned by you and Hoppy, Capito seems to have the edge now, but the primary of 2014 is a long way off. Rockefeller's stepping aside effectively takes the 'Obama Factor' liability off the table for the Dems, so the Republicans need to be careful here. Add to this the possibility of Capito facing primary opposition that could damage her going into the General Election and it's plain to see that 2014 will be far from a 'lead pipe cinch' for Shelley.
January 16, 2013 at 9:07 am | Report comment
ShinnstonGuy
Agreed.
January 17, 2013 at 12:14 pm | Report comment
TD
Who could proudly say they are any longer membes of the NRA? On the one month anniversary of the Newtown shootings, which their leader blamed on video violence, the NRA released a video game of target shooting for ages 4 and up. In that game they depict what appears to be kids coffins as targets and teach to shoot in the head. Today they release a commercial basically suggesting President Obama's daughters be targets, since his daughters are protected by armed guards but most school kids aren't.
The people I know who belong to the NRA are hunters, etc... this organization is not representing your passion for hunting, they are representing big money gun manufactures while USING you!
They have lost touch with middle American and are on the verge or destroying themselves.
January 16, 2013 at 7:56 am | Report comment
bulldog95
I am not a member of the NRA, I just simply have more pressing needs for my moneyy, what little of it I have left after all the taxes are givin to mouth breathers.
The ad that you are pointing out is simply pointing out the double talk coming from DC. If guns are so bad, and so dangerous, and we would all be better off without them, THEN why does big O and his family have armed guards. Obama should come out and say his guards no longer carry guns, but he wont do that because he knows any nut job that has no regard for laws would try and harm them. This message is lost upon you because you just sit there and nod in agreement with anything and everything big O says.
January 16, 2013 at 9:40 am | Report comment
TD
that's a good idea there dog, while we're at it maybe we should defund the secret service since all of us don't have armed guards.
protecting the President's children, whether the Bush twins or Obama girls, should be a very high priority, if you don't agree then you're NUTS
January 16, 2013 at 10:25 am | Report comment
bulldog95
You missed the point, or just ignored it. Let me break it down.
Its ok for Obama to have armed protection but its not ok for ME to have armed protection. I for one could care less if its the president or my neighbor, we all have the right to have a gun. Just listen to just about anyone on the left and they all think that we are to stupid or not responsible enough to have a gun.
January 16, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Report comment
GregG
TD I was a memeber of the NRA until the late 80's. Then I came to the realization that the NRA wasn't the voice of the hunter or gun owner, they were nothing more than a lobbyist group for gun & ammo manufactures. And it is blatantly obvious that they are doing a wonderful job. Personally, I feel this "gun control" issues is much to do about nothing with the exception of increasing the gun and ammo makers profits. Common sense tells me that a "law" is NOT going to take assult weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets. Nor will stricter background laws keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mental ill. I myself find it very perplexing that we live in a society where individuals will pour billions of dollars into the pockets of gun & ammo makers just to prove how adamant they are to protect themselves from their own government as they have done in the past few weeks, yet if you were to ask these very same people for a tax increase to build more prisons, mental health facilities and to better secure our schools, they would be screaming at the top of their lungs. Just last week a friend of mine was telling me how he had spent $3,500.00 on some gun, clips and ammo that he feared would be banned. Now I have known this person for many years and I can say without a doubt that if you were to ask him for a $5.00 per year increase on his taxes to improve security at the school his grandkids attend he would going into one of his "them damn democrats" rages. Now I myself have no fear of our government raiding my home and taking my deer rifle or my box of 12ga turkey loads, but I am beginning to fear a society that places more value on the "right" to own an UZI than providing safe schools for our children.
January 16, 2013 at 9:41 am | Report comment
TD
I won guns, always have, but the NRA has become nothing more than a fringe movement of the far right. Last year they graded congress members on how they voted regarding tax issues. have anything to do with guns? or just right fringe of Republican party.
I know a friend of mine had an Israeli assault riffle when we were camping a few years ago with a 30 round clip, when he opened that thing up and unloaded I thought right then this gun doesn't belong out in society.
January 16, 2013 at 10:28 am | Report comment
Hop'sHip
TD: Fungo, I mean Fester (definition of fester: "to generate pus"; sounds even worse than "fungus") stated "TD, You are one sick dude. Making political hay out of a tragedy of some nut murdering 20 children.
What a truly patriotic organization would do in the aftermath of such a massacre would be to use it as an opportunity to increase membership and sell more guns!
January 16, 2013 at 10:04 am | Report comment
Wowbagger
TD,
Only a total all in Progressive like you would interpret the NRAs game this way pushing the shape of purposefully generalized profile targets to a ridiculous extreme! They are not even shaped like any modern coffin I have ever seen. To begin the targets are definitely man sized and shaped, although very generalized. You see I have this game and am not just repeating something I have seen on some blog.
In a perfect world you live next door to the local police station who come instantly when called and natural disasters like Katrina and Sandy never happen and, of course, civil society never breaks down. In this perfect world September 11, 2001 was just a bad dream too.
In the real world where I live the Police, who have no obligation to protect you personally, are twenty minutes away at best and disasters happen. These can sometimes last for weeks! During this time people are pretty much on their own. The good ones are friendly and helpful while the predators come out in force. Fortunately we have many more of the good ones in West Virginia, but there are predators out there too.
The NRA has ADDED 250,000 new members since this all began. The second Amendment makes no reference to hunting! The leftists in the Obama administration are just playing you in order to have a group to demonize (see Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals).
The NRA is not sponsored by industry. They have no corporate members. The big firearms trade organization is the National Shooting Sports Foundation ironically of Newtown Connecticut a little over one mile from Sandy Hook.
January 16, 2013 at 10:44 am | Report comment
Roger
Shelley wins the Senate Race! Long past the time that WV should be represented by someone who really care about the state and not their own fame/glory/political clout and higher office. :-)
January 16, 2013 at 7:58 am | Report comment
Uncle Fester
TD, You are one sick dude. Making political hay out of a tragedy of some nut murdering 20 children. Typical liberal democrat.
January 16, 2013 at 9:14 am | Report comment
GregG
What is sick Fungo is all the money that has been poured into the pockets of gun and ammo manufactures pockets in the past 4 weeks. What is really "sick", as you put it, is the amount of people falling for this fear mongering tactic that our own government is at any minute going to send in a battalion of troops to raid their home. There is bales being made alright but it isn't hay, it's bales of money and the gun & ammo dealers are filling their barns. Maybe we should have a 20% tax on all gun and ammo sales so we can provide treatment and housing for these "nuts" as you call them.
January 16, 2013 at 10:00 am | Report comment
NorthernWVman
maybe we should have a 20% tax on computers so that YOU greg can spew your First Amendment rights on this MB!! You are correct it is a fear that our government is going to trample OUR 2A rights. How can you back up what you say is the firearm industry's "fear mongering tactic?" There have been no ads from the industry to suggest such.
It amazes me that they attempt to push such regulations to Infringe on our 2A rights when they cannot even pass a budget. Just shove it through as fast as possible just like ObamaCare.
If this gun control stuff really worked I would have to say that Chicago should be the safest place on Earth. Just like Germany was in the late 30's/40's.
January 16, 2013 at 10:27 am | Report comment
GregG
NorthernWVman, gun&ammo manufactures themselves don't have to spend a dime or even dirty their hands with these scare tactics, they have the NRA and there memebers doing it for them. Whenever the subject of gun control is mentioned you can count on the old "I have to protect myself from the government" being spoken. Now just to make it clear, I myself DO NOT support gun control. Again, I DO NOT SUPPORT GUN CONTROL. The reason I DO NOT support gun control ISN'T because I feel it is my 2a Right to own an assult weapon or a 30 round clip. The reason I DO NOT SUPPORT gun control is very simple......I know that more government gun control will not be any more effective than the "war on drugs". What I do feel would have the greatest impact in solving this problem we are faced with is a vibrant economy. Now, I'm sure you and many others are thinking, damn Greg has done went of his rocker, but that is my opinion. I feel that a strong economy which creates a sound tax base goes along ways in alleviating may of todays issues including gun violance. If we get people back to work, drawing a paycheck, paying taxes and earning benefits such as medical insurance and pension plans then we as a nation could afford to increase our focus and tax dollars on issues such as mental health, veterans, our prision systems, improving are legal system, strengthening our law enforcement etc ..... If we could somehow find a way to get back to a nation where it only took one parent working to support a household then maybe we would all benefit. Maybe little Susie would have help with her homework. Maybe little Johnny's mental issues would have been picked up on and addressed before he walked into a school and committed mass murder. Maybe if the next door neighbor had better job opportunities than part time at Walmart he wouldn't be living on welfare while cooking meth in the basement. But things will not change because Big Business controls the republican party, and the republican party is gaining more ground of our government everyday with their "Guns, God, Gays and abortion" ploy. So no NorthernWVman, I DO NOT want a 20% tax on guns & ammo. But I sure would like to see a few people start using a little common sense and opening their eyes to the fact that our poor economy is the root cause to the majority of this nations problems.
January 16, 2013 at 11:58 am | Report comment
Hop'sHip
Now GregG. After looking up the definition of "feaster", I have concluded that Uncle was right to change his name. feaster: to putrefy; to exist in a state of progressive deterioration. Now doesn't that aptly describe what dear Uncle brings to the conversation? Except in his case, he exists in a state of REgressive deterioration.
January 16, 2013 at 10:30 am | Report comment
Hop'sHip
Oops! Fester, not feaster. The rot is starting to spread.
January 16, 2013 at 10:34 am | Report comment
bulldog95
Well Greg, the fear is warrented. When Biden says that executive orders could be used, people should be afraid. Just like Obama issued an EO to stop enforcing deporting illegal aliens. Anyone that thinks with their brain and not their feelings know that something is on the way and while it may not be taking away our guns, its going to be a step in the wrong direction.
January 16, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Report comment
TD
the NRA are the ones committing suicide on the issue, Obama had no intention of doing anything about guns but after several mass killings and the unbelievable horror in Conn., he had to.
My only point is the NRA is losing middle America which is an epic fail on their part. They were invited to the table and could have played a very constructive role representing their members (74% of whom support thorough background checks) instead they swing far to the right and destroy their brand.
January 16, 2013 at 10:34 am | Report comment
CaptainQ
No matter how this next election turns out, it's definitely the 'End of an Era' for the Democrats in WV. The 'popular' Senators of the past (Randolph, Byrd) are gone, and the one man who could still singlehandedly BUY any election (Rockefeller) has retired from the fight.
One thing's for certain, 2014 will be one of the most interesting Primary and General 'off year' elections of all time in the Mountain State! It will also test the strength of the theory of some national political 'talking heads' who claim that WV is now a "Red" state. Let's not forget that an equally interesting 'battle' is shaping up for the U.S. Second District House now that Capito is running for Senator. THAT seat could be 'in play' also.
January 16, 2013 at 9:17 am | Report comment
Sampeer
I just learned something new, senators are like royality, in that a line succession exists. Let's just be honest for once and admit, senators like most all politicians buy their office. Hoppy just as much as said that in his discussion about Robin Davis.
While we are being honest, let's face the fact we are in the mess we find ourselves because we treat senators and representatives like they are royality. We bow and scrape around them like they are devine.
Judging by the condition of the nation and the condition of West Virginia, royality and devine are about the last words I'd use to describe these people. Better words would be narcissitic. egomaniacs, arrogant, not to mention ignorant, and self serving.
I pray for change, real change, but as a wise man once said, the greatest argument against American Democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter. that's obvious by some of the posting I see here.
January 16, 2013 at 11:11 am | Report comment
wirerowe
Hoppy if the election were held today Congresswoman Capito wins. I think it is un likely that she will face significant opposition in the primary and likely will win the general but that is a long time away and we have to see the competition. On guns I think the outcome will be tightening up background checks, limiting the 10 bullet magazines but there will be no reinstating of the assault weapons ban. This will do little to keep guns out of the hands of the "wrong people" but may I repeat may reduce the severity of these horrible incidents.
January 16, 2013 at 11:17 am | Report comment
mntnman
Light news day, Hoppy? Much ado about nothing this is. No one really cares. As for Capito and other candidates, its a few years away, so guessing what will happen is a waste of exercise.
As for the comment thread, like AARP is not the real voice of the elderly, like unions really don't represent working people, the NRA does not really represent gun owners. Associations like these, over time, tend to become self sustaining organizations whose leadership decides what their "constituents" really believe. They drive the debate; sometimes to places where their constituents don't really want to go.
I tire of them, like I tire of Washington. But what are you gonna do?
January 16, 2013 at 12:40 pm | Report comment
GregG
Great point mntnman, even though I am a Union supporter I would still have to agree with your post. May I add one more? Like OUR Government doesn't represent the people! And by that I mean..... they say they will represent the people in matters such as guns, god, gays and abortions in order to get elected but once they are sworn into office suddenly their only goal is to represent those with the money. I would like to think people would see through this little trick, but everyday that goes by I grow more concerned about the mentallity of this nation. Even before the events in Newtown we were bitching about our educational system. We brought up many issues such as teacher salaries, safety, nutrition, exercise, curriculum, test scores etc...... Now, a month later the focus has been shifted from our childrens education and safety to Billy Bob's right to own an AR--15 with a 100 round clip. While everyone is rushing out to spend money on a gun they fear may be banned, I'm buying hand sanitizer, tissues and other supplies for my childrens classroom because our schools are under funded. And guess what? The guns and ammo that I use for hunting are still setting in the gun cabinet. Maybe it's just me, maybe my priorities are all wrong, but in my world my children are more valuable to me than a high capacity clip. As you said mntnman........"But what are you gonna do?"
January 16, 2013 at 1:59 pm | Report comment
mntnman
You make many good points. But what are we gonna do? We can vote, we can educate other voters, we can talk until our lips fall off -- that's what we're gonna do.
January 16, 2013 at 4:20 pm | Report comment
Doug
Rahall is a complete joke and would be nothing but an automatic "yes vote" for the Dems. He's attached to the hip with Obama and would get crushed by Shelly! By the way, has he ever paid the gambling debt from years ago he owed to one of the Las Vegas casinos?
January 16, 2013 at 1:13 pm | Report comment
Medman
History shows that politics swing in and out of cycles over the years, going from Left to Right as circumstances change. Right now, we are a nation swinging far Left in my opinion and I am not sure it will swing the other way and provide the balance that has made our country successful. As more and more folks become dependent on the Federal government for handouts, retirements and subsidies, they will vote for whoever will keep giving them things. Rockefeller was a giver and the takers loved him. Any candidate who does not continue those promises is vulnerable in my opinion. That is the real issue that threatens Shelley's candidacy.
January 16, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Report comment