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10/07/2009
Hoppy Kercheval
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Hoppy's Commentary For Wednesday
Talkline Host Hoppy Kercheval
Everybody loved “Cash for Clunkers” and why not?  Americans are not stupid.  They recognize a good deal when they see it and when the federal government threw money at people so they would buy cars they responded by going to the showrooms in droves.

Consumer sales raced to an eight year high in August because of “Cash for Clunkers.”  But when the money ran out, so did the interest in buying cars. 

The Washington Post reports that General Motors sales dropped 36 percent in September compared with the month before.  Ford was down 37 percent and Chrysler dropped 33 percent. 

Why?  Everyone who had waited to buy a car or was thinking about buying a car over the next few months made their purchase in August.  All “Cash for Clunkers” did was jam the demand into several weeks.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration and others in Washington are considering a second stimulus package.  The unemployment rate has reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent and many economists believe it will go above 10 percent. 

The first stimulus is turning out to be a $787 billion pork project.  It’s impossible to measure whether it’s meeting President Obama’s prediction of saving or creating 3.5 million jobs, but it does give the Administration a chance to say “things would have been really bad” had we not had the stimulus.

A second, more targeted stimulus would help trigger new hiring, goes the argument.

One of the options is a $3,000 tax credit for each new hire.  Sounds good, right?  But what prevents businesses from claiming the tax credit for a worker they were going to hire anyway, or eliminating one position while filling another to get the credit?

I’m not saying business people are conniving, but they are skilled at using any tax advantage that the government makes available. 

The federal government is forever trying to out smart the marketplace.  Somehow, bureaucrats in Washington think they can pick economic winners and losers.  The concept is not only delusional, but supremely unfair to those businesses and individuals that don’t happen to be “picked” for government favor.

This is a deep and painful recession.  Businesses and individuals continue to recalibrate their personal economies as they move cautiously forward.  But when they look forward they see trouble on the horizon.

They worry about a potentially wildly expensive health care reform law.  They see cap-and-trade as a tax on the energy producing sector of our nation that will trickle down to bill paying Americans. They worry that the EPA has gone rogue, putting climate change ahead of the economic well-being of the country.

These are real and substantial concerns by Americans who are asking more questions about whether the country is headed in the right direction.   Not even a sweet deal on a new car can calm the fears. 


User Comments
Hoppy, Another Stimulus ??!! NO-NO-NO...!!! You cannot spend your way out of a Recession. A look at what our Federal spending has done to date: Medicaid, Medicare, AMTRAK, US Postal Service are all near bankruptcy. Locally, $4 Million of the present Stimulus went to upgrade the police pistol range that is contracted to a 3rd Party. Not one job was created.

We must stop returning politicians to office that do not adhere to the principle of the Founders that, less government is best. Why, why do these elected continue to follow lock step with Party doctrine instead to listening to the electorate ??

Time to send messages to Congress about the real world. Life is tough and Government is attempting to make it impossible. Time for you folks in Congress to buy a helment (with cash) because you're going to get smacked up-side the voting booth.

Great piece, Hoppy! Keep up the good work! And don't forget about the next C4C style program coming soon to a retailer near you: the Energy Star Rebate Program - about $300 million in rebates for purchasers of select appliances. Looks like a great deal for the manufacturers, retailers, and consumers of such products, but it's paid for by the rest of us and overlooks a very simple economic reality: accelerated consumption ? economic growth.
Hop,

The Obama Administration is lost in the woods when it comes to economic policy to the detriment of the entire country. Government does not create jobs, businesses do. The more instability they create in the market (things like the uncertainty of what the health care system will look like in four years and what it will cost business), and the anticipation of higher taxes only throw cold water on any economic recovery.
Add to all of the above mentioned that Pelosi said yesterday that the idea of a VAT was not out of the question. (She also insisted that it was only a tax on manufacturing and NOT on the middle class. What a clueless bimbo!) It's no wonder businesses are afraid to make a move out of concern for what the government will be up to next!

"The Forgotten Man" by Amity Shlaes should be required reading for every citizen in this country to see exactly how these same types of grand schemes from the government prolonged the Great Depression. Economic education in this country is woefully lacking, but, thankfully, a large part of the population is finally waking up and screaming, "ENOUGH!!!"
The underlying problems of our economy have not been addressed. Number one is doing something about the cost of healthcare, it is the 1000 pound anchor around our necks. Number two is fixing the financial system, go back to the regulations Roosevelt had in place, they served us well for 70 years. Number three is reworking our trade agreements to favor the American worker and bring manufacturing jobs back home, having US workers compete with COMMUNIST CHINA'S endless source of cheap labor is ridiculous. Number four is putting together an energy policy that doesn't have us sending one billion dollars a day to the Middle East. Number five is shutting down the off shore tax havens for large corporations. It is insane to allow Bank of America, just an example there are so many others, to have 28 offices in the Cayman Islands. Those are the underlying problems and they all need to be dealt with but as Obama has already found out, there are extremely powerful forces out there who like things just the way they are.
When all is said and done, I believe the recession will run its course the same as most recessions do. This recession will leave us (taxpayers) with a much larger liability than before. Much of the stimulus was for pet projects (i.e. purchasing transit buses in my town for 1 million dollars to replace buses that did not need to be replaced); creating jobs that in the future will cost the taxpayers additional money in order to maintain these jobs. To think that we would create more debt with an additional stimulus package when we haven’t put 25% of the original stimulus out there is just ridiculous. It just shows the mindset of Washington that money fixes all problems. As one of my favorite radio play by play guys, who recently passed away would say “unbelievable”.
When all is said and done, I believe the recession will run its course the same as most recessions do. This recession will leave us (taxpayers) with a much larger liability than before. Much of the stimulus was for pet projects (i.e. purchasing transit buses in my town for 1 million dollars to replace buses that did not need to be replaced); creating jobs that in the future will cost the taxpayers additional money in order to maintain these jobs. To think that we would create more debt with an additional stimulus package when we haven’t put 25% of the original stimulus out there is just ridiculous. It just shows the mindset of Washington that money fixes all problems. As one of my favorite radio play by play guys, who recently passed away would say “unbelievable”.
Hoppy, Obama is considering a SECOND stimulus package? How in the name of Alan Greenspan are we going to pay for the FIRST one? No matter how nice Obama is to China, they're not going to keep buying all our extra debt forever! Another stimulus package is sheer insanity, especially when the FIRST one has yielded very very little tangible results. As Hoppy stated, all "Cash for Clunkers" did was give a one time shot in the arm to the auto industry. Sure it did get many gas guzzling older vehicles off the streets, but now car sales are flat again. Say what you want about that moron Bush II, but he NEVER spent taxpayer money on the monumental scale (in terms of TRILLIONS at one time) like Obama and the Democrats are. On top of this, Obama wants to 'reform' the health care system with a 'public' option too. This will also cost TRILLIONS that this nation's treasury DOES NOT HAVE. With Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security all nearly broke now, where is Obama going to come up with the ready cash to pay for ALL of this? Answer: from the American taxpayer, that's where! Just watch as Cap & Trade utility fees and Value Added Taxes are quietly passed and then pushed on all of us to pay for all of the Democrat's wild spending sprees! Sure Bush II did bloat the federal budget but Obama is making Bush II look like Ebeneezer Scrooge in comparison when it comes to spending.

Well Obama supporters, care to explain how the Democrats are going to do ALL this and then balance the federal budget and make Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid solvent again? With smoke, mirrors amd magic?

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