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11/05/2009
Hoppy Kercheval
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Hoppy's Commentary For Thursday
Talkline Host Hoppy Kercheval

The economic stimulus spending in West Virginia has supposedly created or saved 2,400 jobs here. That’s a nice round figure, and one that may provide some confidence that your taxpayer dollars from the $787 billion stimulus package are working.

But figures for West Virginia and the country are probably wildly wrong.  News organizations have been poring over the job reports and finding that the numbers just don’t add up. 

Here are some examples:

The Associated Press reported that the stimulus money supposedly saved 935 jobs at Southwest Georgia Community Action Council, but only 508 people work there.   The Wall Street Journal found a Kentucky shoe store owner who said he saved nine jobs by supplying nine pairs of boots to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Some of the numbers in West Virginia look funny as well.

One Head Start preschool agency in West Virginia said it saved or created 145 jobs with a grant of $344,848, but another Head Start office reported its grants of over $822,000 saved or created just 19 jobs.

A West Virginia College reported one work study position funded with $31,422 from the stimulus.   Another college reported three work study jobs from a $27,000 grant. 

There has been considerable confusion about how the information should be tallied.  The WSJ reports that “as many as 86 percent of the jobs estimated by recipients of Head Start grants could have been inaccurately reported.” 

In some cases, the agencies spent the money on raises and counted that toward jobs saved.  The AP found that the federal office of Administration for Children and Families reported 14,506 jobs reported saved, but 9,300 were existing employees in local agencies that received raises.

West Virginia Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, who voted against the stimulus, says she is skeptical of the job figures in the state.

“I’m not sure claims of 2,400 ‘created or saved’ amounts to anything worthy of applause,” Capito said in a statement, “particularly when even the 2,400 is widely viewed by experts as likely inflated.”

In fairness, measuring jobs “created or saved” is difficult.  It’s likely the agencies getting the money are just trying to fill out the government forms as best they can.  Ed DeSeve, the senior advisor to President Obama on the stimulus, told the WSJ that the goal is “to create jobs, not count them.”

But if the Obama Administration is going to take credit for creating or saving 640,000 jobs then it has to expect scrutiny. 

Another interesting question is why so many of these jobs are in the government.  When President Obama and others pushed the stimulus they said 90 percent of the jobs would be in the private sector.  That’s not happening. 

The $787 billion stimulus is the largest single expenditure in the country’s history.  But with unemployment rising and unreliable reporting of the jobs that are supposed to be saved or created, it doesn’t look like we’re getting sufficient bang for our buck. 


User Comments
If anyone wasn't aware how Chicago politics worked well wonder no more. corruption with a capital C. May the good Lord have mercy on our country. The problem, we need to turn to God in this country, he is still in control and I fear our onley hope. God Bless.
The government use fuzzy math to justify their bloated programs... never.

Both parties are equally guilty of using fuzzy math, misrepresenting data, etc. Whatever works to support their positions. I wish I could say that I'm surprised by this but I'm not.
Hoppy, the numbers being reported are more indicative of the "number of jobs saved" rather than the "number of jobs created". The saved jobs are predominately in the Service sector, which is usually city, county and state, Federal. This probably includes all the positions in the Educational and Medical professions. New federal assisted programs usually result in more need for positions of management for those programs. Also, one needs to factor in attrition due to retirements. Government service jobs don't go unfilled because a employee retires!

Any new jobs created have been those mostly related to the Banking and Financial professions, as more banking institutions are closing or selling off their overseas operations. Some have to as a condition for "bailout" assistance. Indeed, when a failed bank is assumed by another bank under FDIC proceedures, only the bank President, maybe a few Directors, lose their jobs.

Job creation for the private sector isn't there ... yet ... if ever somewhere in our future. Stimulus for main street Retail, small manufacturing, home construction, and businesses that usually employ 100 or less, does not exist. During my working years this was the engine that drove the US economy. But, now what's left is only viewed as the sector that can be "taxed to the max" to fuel the expense of the public sector.

If you are unable to accurately ccount where your Stimulus dollars are being spent, who is spending it, and for what. How are you going to get an accurate accounting of the results? Any 5th Grader knows that answer !!

Hoppy, I agree with TD on this. I would add closing Guantanamo, getting out of Iraq, eliminating don't ask, don't tell, and other Obama promises. I am still looking for the bold leadership from his administration. The American people believe health care should be a right and a majority of Americans support a public option. Now blue dog Democrats will probably not have the political courage to follow through. Bring on term limits for elected officials.

In fairness though, it is probably premature to declare the stimulus a success or failure. We did not get into this mess overnight and should not expect quick turnaround. Our nation and its economy are like an ocean liner, not a kayak. Course corrections take time to cause an effect. Have a good day.
Fuzzy math.... inflated numbers.... no proven results.... This is also exactly what will happen when the government takes over America's HEALTH CARE!!
I agree with ShaoLung. We shouldn't provide basic health care for the failures amongst us. If God wanted them to live, he would have given them those superior traits that the successful were given. I do want to keep those fetuses alive, though. We are pro-life! After they are born, they are on their own.
These figures are representative of exactly what is wrong with Obama-Era government, and demonstrates my point exactly from yesterday's commentary. Fuzzy math, Fuzzy math, Fuzzy math! Clinton used it in his reporting of his "surplus"(which never existed, despite the rhetoric my response generated)....of course we need roads, bridges, military and such....but health care is NOT a right, it is a service, plain and simple. The "progressive"(hahahahahahahaha, that's funny!)tax system punishes success and rewards failure(we need a FLAT tax for everyone, including corporations)and we need a REPRESENTATIVE republic AGAIN, one that listens to the PEOPLE.....not the lies the lying liars are trying to feed us. Calculating a "saved" job? I guess Obama would speculate that every live birth is a "failed" abortion.....
One year since the election and time for the first report card. As a supporter of Obama, I used to be a Republican, I can say I am not satisfied. One thing George Bush knew how to do was get his agenda through. I thought it was bad for the country, I think the evidence proves that, but the man could ram through legislation he wanted and with the House and Senate in line, he could get it passed. Obama is far too concerned with bi-partisanship, he took single payer (our only true hope for getting a handle on healthcare)off the table before the table was even set up. He has not cracked heads and re-regulated Wall Street, in fact some of the banks that were "too big to fail" are now even bigger. He hasn't repealed Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy. I still haven't seen any proposals to change some of these trade laws that have taken away the US workers' good jobs. He appears ready to escalate the war in Afghanistan with no clear strategy on getting out. Times like this call for bold leadership and action, Obama needs to put his foot on the pedal and make big things happen or the Dems will lose their majorities.

And finally just want to drop a quote about yesterday's topic, "if the gov't is taking in more than it needs it should give some of it back in the form of tax cuts", said Hoppy Kerchival in 2001. 8 years later lamenting the debt.
Hoppy, What a mess. For a government who was going to clean up, be open to the public, let us decide, have turned out to be one of the most dishonest administration that we have seen. We have more czars that we are just now finding how radically left they are and how they really don't like America and what it stands for. They attack Fox News and whether you like Fox or not, if you have half a brain you have to ask yourself if they are trying to quiet Fox, what and who is next. Maybe just shut down Fox. Some will say the CEO's being told BY the government how much they should be paid is ok, BUT that is for the board of directors, not our government, and what are you going to do when they tell you, you are making too much!!! There is nothing out of Washington with this administration and Congress that I believe. God Help US. IR
Hoppy,

The cash for clunkers numbers don't add up either. Maybe the Administration needs to appoint a Math Czar to check everyone's Arithmetic.
C'mon Hoppy, can any of us be surprised by this? Of COURSE the Main Stream Media's going to misreport the so-called Stimulus job creation. The MSM is hard at work doing ANYTHING to make the Obama Administration look good. Who cares if it's the truth of not? The Democrats sure don't! This is why we are hearing all this nonsense about an "economic recovery" with no overall addition of jobs. Remember how Obama PROMISED that if HIS Stimulus package was passed, unemployment wouldn't rise above 8%? SURPRISE!

I don't want to be a promoter of the GOP, but there is a reason why the Democrats lost the NJ & Virginia Governor's elections last Tuesday. Apparently, Americans are tired of the MSM telling us how great Obama is while the economy continues to slide and Congress is gearing up to spend/waste trillions more dollars on things this nation CANNOT afford! Even though Republicans are just as clueless as the Democrats, it looks like America's had enough of Obamanomics, ObamaCare and ObamaEcology. The GOP could become the majority party again.... by default.

Bottom line, I said all along that Obama's trillion dollar PORK-ULUS package would produce little economic results, and it looks like the facts are pointing that way. The MSM is going to try their hardest to make it look like it's working, but the raw numbers don't lie. There's no way to SPEND our way out of a recession, especially by putting the Federal Government even FURTHER into debt. America will be learning this lesson the hard way unless all this wasteful trillion dollar spending is stopped.

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