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Big 12 Snapshot: Trusting the numbers, not the eye test

— by Dave Weekley

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — This week in our Big 12 Snapshot, some trends are starting to develop.  

  All of the teams have now played a couple of games and it’s time to start the process of analyzing the actual results and getting away from the preconceived notions we had about the Big 12 before this odd season kicked off.  

  We’ve got changes in all three of our tiers in the Big 12 Snapshot this week.  Just in case you have forgot, we use a tier format for our rankings, rather than conference standings or power ratings.    

TIER ONE — (Reserved for serious Big 12 title contenders.)

OKLAHOMA STATE 

  Although they were idle, I’m keeping Oklahoma State atop Tier One in our rankings again this week.  The Pokes have showed they can play defense, which is more than most of the rest of the Big 12 can say at this point.  OSU is third in the nation in ESPN’s defensive efficiency ratings (89.7) and have playmakers like Chuba Hubbard, Tylan Wallace and Spencer Sanders (likely to return this week) on the offensive side of the football.  Until they lose, they stay on top of our Snapshot heap.  If you have a problem with that, answer me this; on a neutral field, what Big 12 team would be favored to beat Oklahoma State them this week?    

IOWA STATE 

  Iowa State belongs in Tier One this week, after an efficient performance in an easier-than-it-looked victory against Texas Tech. “Brocktober” remains in effect, as the Cyclones are 12-1 in October since since 2017.  Brock Purdy threw for 302 yards and a pair of touchdowns (including one to his safety blanket, tight end Charlie Kolar) against the Red Raiders, while Breece Hall keyed the ground game.  Hall had 27 of ISU’s 43 rushes, for 135 yards and two scores.  ISU is 3-0 in the Big 12 and after three straight wins, the sting of that season opening loss to Louisiana is fading quickly.  The Cyclones trip to Stillwater on 10/24 is looking more and more as potentially the game of the year in the Big 12.  No one would have predicted that six weeks ago.     

KANSAS STATE 

  We welcome Kansas State to Tier One for the first time this season.  Admit it, K-State is kinda tough to love.  We don’t know what to expect from the quarterback position, their rushing game is no sure thing behind an offensive line that’s completely rebuilt and their second-year coach Chris Klieman got a big contract extension last week, despite the fact most college football fans still aren’t sure how to pronounce his name (it’s kuh-LIE-man).  Yet, they are unbeaten in Big 12 play, with wins at Oklahoma and TCU.  Right now, Kansas State is the Ed Sheehan of the Big 12.  Odd looking, but at some point, you just have to trust they know what they are doing (Keith Urban also fits this example).   

TIER TWO —- (Teams in this tier are probable bowl teams, but still considered conference title underdogs.)

OKLAHOMA                

  It’s been fun to make fun of Oklahoma the last couple of weeks, hasn’t it?  The Sooners have owned the conference for the past five years and were the only game in town, in regard to whether or not the Big 12 would have a representative in the CFP mix over that span.  A loss to Texas would have signaled a true changing of the guard in the Big 12, but somehow, Oklahoma survived.  The Sooners benched Spencer Rattler midway in the first half against Texas, but he stepped up big time in the second half and in overtime.  OU’s defense was missing in action as the Longhorns rallied late to tie it in regulation and the Sooners were guilty of some horrendous time management.  But in the end, Oklahoma found a way.  And while they don’t control their own destiny at the moment, they are still alive in the conference race.       

WEST VIRGINIA   

  We will keep WVU in Tier Two and bump the Mountaineers up to fifth overall in our Snapshot after an off week.  But honestly, it’s really tough to figure West Virginia out right now.  WVU is heavily favored against Kansas and if they take care of business against the reeling Jayhawks, will be favored at Texas Tech.  Wins in those games would put WVU at 3-1 in the Big 12 in a season in which OU and Texas already have two league losses and Mountaineers will get a shot at Kansas State in Morgantown on 10/31.  West Virginia’s defense is improved, but penalties and turnovers remain a problem.    

TCU 

  While it was not surprising that TCU beat Texas (the Frogs have done it in six of the last seven meetings), a letdown after playing the Longhorns could have also been predicted.  TCU has now followed a win against Texas with a loss four consecutive times.  In their home loss to K-State, the Frogs didn’t have to face the injured Skylar Thompson.  But it was their own quarterback, Max Duggan, who took a pounding.  Duggan was relatively ineffective and shared time under center with Matthew Downing.  Duggan scored on a fourth-and-goal run with 3:39 left to cut the K-State lead to seven, but the rally came up short.  Now TCU faces the prospect of losing its third Big 12 game at home, when Oklahoma comes to Fort Worth this week. 

TEXAS

  At 2-2 overall and 1-2 in the Big 12, obviously, Texas is not off to the kind of start they envisioned before the season began.  One of the criticisms that Tom Herman continues to face on the Forty Acres, is that while his players are long on recruiting clippings, they are short on toughness and desire.  But you can’t really point to that in Texas’ 53-45 heartbreaker of a 4OT loss to Oklahoma.  Sam Ehlinger did it all against OU; he scored six touchdowns, threw for 287 yards and ran for 146 more.  But that was part of the problem — beyond Ehlinger, Texas running backs combined for only 29 more rushing yards.  UT’s offensive line also gave up six sacks.  For Texas, the three-game stretch dead ahead against Baylor, Oklahoma State and WVU (in Austin on 11/7), will going a long way to define Ehlinger’s legacy and Herman’s future as the Longhorns’ head coach. 

BAYLOR

  In retrospect, its probably a good thing that Baylor didn’t have a game over the weekend, because the Bears announced last Thursday it was suspending all football-related activities due to more positive COVID-19 tests within the program.  Baylor has been hit the hardest among Big 12 teams in terms of scheduling changes due to COVID-19, with two canceled games; their season-opener with Louisiana Tech (Bulldogs’ outbreak) and against Houston (BU outbreak).  Baylor’s defense has some solid moments in their overtime loss at WVU last time out, but the Bears’ have multiple issues on offense that need correcting, if they have any hopes of upsetting Oklahoma State next week at McLane Stadium in Waco. 

TIER THREE —- (Woe to thee who find themselves in Tier Three.)

TEXAS TECH 

  Texas Tech drops back into Tier Three in our Snapshot this week after a loss to Iowa State.  And it wasn’t so much that TTU lost to ISU, but rather, how they lost.  The Red Raiders returned a blocked Iowa State field goal for a touchdown early, but it was all downhill after that.  Iowa State outgained Texas Tech 325-69 in the first half en route to a 21-7 lead.  Texas Tech quarterback Alan Bowman returned to action, but threw for only 97 yards.  Henry Colombi was actually more effective on just two drives, hitting on 10-of-12 for 115 yards and a score.  While the TTU defensive allowed Iowa State 516 total yards, Texas Tech was 0-10 on third down conversion attempts.  Texas Tech is idle this week before a test with WVU in Lubbock on 10/24.   

KANSAS

  What is shaping up for another long season at Kansas got a little longer last Thursday, when Les Miles confirmed he tested positive for COVID-19.  During his radio call-in show the previous night, Miles mentioned he felt like he had a cold.  KU athletic director Jeff Long says as long as Miles does not develop symptoms or have a fever, we will be able to coach the West Virginia game this week.  The Kansas quarterback situation for the trip to WVU is anything but clear.  True freshman Jalon Daniels started last time out against Oklahoma State, but left after a late first quarter sack and never returned.  Thomas MacVittie who started the opener against Coastal Carolina is dealing with a sore shoulder and Miles Kendrick took most of the practice snaps during the off week.  Les Miles on the sidelines or or not, oddsmakers don’t like KU’s chances, the Jayhawks are nearly four touchdown underdogs to WVU this Saturday. 





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