All things being equal, the rematch between Democratic Governor Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican challenger Bill Maloney in this year’s General Election may come down to how voters view the state’s economy.
There’s the Tomblin view:
–The state is paying its bills. Other states are running in the red, furloughing state employees and battling budget deficits, while West Virginia has avoided cutbacks, added to the Rainy Day savings account and balanced its budget.
–Tax rates are coming down. The corporate net, business franchise and food tax rates are all declining, with the food tax and the business franchise tax scheduled to be eliminated completely by 2014.
–Jobs are being created. Macy’s is building a $150 million distribution center in Martinsburg that will employ 900 people full-time and another 300 part-time. Gestamp is investing $100 million to reopen the South Charleston stamping plant, creating hundreds of new jobs.
–The natural gas industry is a game changer. Drillers, using hydraulic fracturing, are reaching previously inaccessible natural gas deposits and opening up new opportunities in the energy field.
–The state’s unemployment rate is coming down. It was 6.7 percent in April, lower than the national average of 8.1 percent. Additionally, the number of unemployed state residents fell by 1,000 to 53,800 in April.
Then there’s the Maloney view:
–The size of state government continues to grow. The 2013 general revenue budget is nearly $4.6 billion, the largest in the state’s history. Meanwhile, the state will likely fall short of its planned $100 million budget surplus this fiscal year. The state needs a smaller, less expensive government.
–The state needs to fix its tax code to stop punishing business investment. Additionally, the state’s court system needs reformed so that businesses know they’ll get a fair shake, lowering the risk of jackpot justice.
–West Virginia’s economic development depends too much on the use of taxpayer dollars to subsidize new or expanding businesses, putting the state in the position of picking economic winners and losers.
–West Virginia did not land the ethane cracker. This was a top priority for the Tomblin Administration, but Shell picked Pennsylvania over West Virginia.
–The state’s true unemployment picture is much grimmer. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, West Virginia’s labor participation rate is just 54 percent, the lowest of all 50 states. That means nearly half of the 1.5 million West Virginians 16 and older are not in the labor force or not looking for work.
The economy is nearly always the biggest issue in the Governor’s race. The incumbent wants voters to believe the state is headed in the right direction, while the challenger argues that things could be better.
Is the state’s economy doing well or just limping along? The November results will be a legitimate test of what the voters think.