Earl Ray Tomblin campaigned in the special gubernatorial election last year saying West Virginia was headed in the right direction.
Tomblin, who had been serving as Acting Governor, had evidence to back up the campaign claims; the state was paying its bills, the Marcellus Shale gas boom was underway, taxes were coming down and jobs were being created.
The picture looked particularly good when compared with other states where budgets were being slashed, workers were furloughed and red ink was flowing.
It worked. Tomblin defeated Republican Bill Maloney by three points.
The rematch between Tomblin and Maloney in this year’s Governor’s race presents a tougher challenge for Tomblin and here’s why:
One pollster, who asked that I not use his name, tells me that one year ago 60 percent of West Virginians thought the state was headed in the right direction. By last December, that number was down to 54 percent. This month, just 39 percent believe West Virginia is on the right path, compared with 38 percent who say we’re not (23 percent were not sure).
I suspect the primary reason is the economy, which a vast majority of voters say is their top issue.
The national economy has not yet bounced back from the Great Recession, and West Virginia continues to feel the effects. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says West Virginia’s jobless rate in June was seven percent, but it is rising in counties being hit by the coal slowdown.
Coal, the state’s leading industry, is slumping. A drop in demand because of the mild winter and competition from natural gas, combined with a tough regulatory environment, have led to coal field layoffs.
The West Virginia Coal Association estimates as many as 2,000 miners have been laid off (though some may have been rehired elsewhere or reassigned). The coal slowdown has a ripple effect on other businesses.
Additionally, the bad economic and regulatory news about coal just makes people nervous. Even if their job is not directly impacted now, they may be more pessimistic about the future because of the uncertainty in the coal industry.
This is particularly true in southern West Virginia, a political stronghold for Tomblin, a Logan County native.
Meanwhile, just this week the Tomblin Administration announced plans to cut next year’s state budget by two percent. “Due to the recent sluggish national economy and a slowdown in the mining of coal, general revenues are projected to grow at less than one percent,” said Department of Revenue Secretary Charles Lorensen.
State Senate Finance Committee Chairman Roman Prezioso, appearing on Metronews Talkline Tuesday, said the cuts proposed by the Governor may not be deep enough.
There is more trouble ahead. Medicaid costs are rising rapidly, while severance tax collections and gambling revenues are flattening out. The state needs to control costs and find ways to spur economic growth to bring in more revenue.
The “worry factor” is higher in West Virginia now than it was just one year ago. Maloney will try to capitalize on that by saying he can lead West Virginia into a brighter future. For Tomblin, the challenge is to convince an increasingly anxious electorate that he is the best man for the job during challenging times.