Election Day predictions are always dangerous, especially in West Virginia where there has been very little public polling. I’ve consulted with a number of political observers in the state. In some races, there is consensus, but in others there is none at all. Taking all the advice into account, here is my take.
I’ve rated the races as solid, lean or toss-up. Also, because of my support for Metronews owner John Raese in his U.S. Senate bid, I have left the Senate race off the list.
–President: Solid Romney in West Virginia: Obama got just 43 percent of the West Virginia vote in 2008 and probably won’t hit 40 percent this time. There’s been no Obama effort in West Virginia. The coal industry has run an aggressive campaign against the President and leading state Democrats have distanced themselves from the President.
–Governor: Lean Tomblin: Earl Ray Tomblin only beat Republican Bill Maloney by 7,500 votes in last year’s special election. Give Tomblin a slight edge in the rematch because of the power of the incumbency. However, Maloney has campaigned hard in southern West Virginia, which gave Tomblin the narrow victory last year.
–Supreme Court: Solid Robin Davis for one seat; toss-up for second position. Most observers believe that the incumbent Democrat will lead the ticket, but there’s no consensus on whether Democrat Tish Chafin or one of the Republican candidates, John Yoder or Allen Loughry, will win the second seat. Some give a slight lean to Chafin, who has outspent the other two.
–Attorney General: Toss-up: The race between long-time Democratic incumbent Darrell McGraw and Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey could be the closest of the night. Morrisey’s aggressive campaign has been helped by significant outside spending. McGraw’s labeling of Morrisey as an “outsider” could help pull the 76-year-old Democrat through again.
–Treasurer: Lean Perdue: Incumbent Democrat John Perdue has suffered from negative press over the size of his staff and a controversial land deal, but he remains a well-known politician who campaigns hard. Republican Challenger Mike Hall had spent less than $50,000 as of the late October financial report, not enough to get any significant traction.
–Agriculture Commissioner: Lean Helmick. Democratic state Senator Walt Helmick and Republican Kent Leonhardt have each waged aggressive campaigns to take over for the retiring long-time Commissioner Gus Douglas. Helmick gets a slight edge because his time in the Legislature gives him name recognition, but Leonhardt’s a working farmer, which helps his credibility.
–Secretary of State: Solid Tennant: Democrat incumbent Natalie Tennant enjoys significant statewide name recognition, making it nearly impossible for Republican Brian Savilla to mount a serious challenge.
–Auditor: Solid Gainer: It seems West Virginia has always had an auditor named Gainer. Denzil Gainer was Auditor from 1960 until his death in 1972. Glen Gainer, Jr. (a distant relative of Denzil) served from 1977 to 1993 and then his son, Glen Gainer III from 1993 until now. Challenger GOP Larry Faircloth is a former state lawmaker from Berkeley where there are a lot of Republicans, but the name “Gainer” and “Auditor” seem synonymous in West Virginia.
–Congress 1st District: Solid McKinley. Incumbent Republican David McKinley’s challenger, Democrat Sue Thorn, is an underfunded progressive. National Democratic Party leaders never put Thorn on the radar, giving McKinley an easy path to re-election.
–Congress 2nd District: Solid Capito. Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is one of the most significant political leaders in the state. Her moderate views make her acceptable to many Democrats, making it difficult for challenger Howard Swint to make inroads.
–Congress 3rd District: Lean Rahall. Republican challenger Rick Snuffer went after incumbent Congressman Nick Rahall hard, hoping to capitalize on President Obama’s unpopularity in southern West Virginia. Rahall has spent heavily in the closing weeks of the campaign and, despite the Obama drag, still benefits from the significant advantage in Democratic voter registration.
–State Senate: Lean GOP gains. Democrats hold a commanding 28-6 advantage, but the Republicans will pick up anywhere from one to four seats.
–House of Delegates: Lean GOP gains. Democrats have a 65-35 advantage in the House. Redistricting makes it harder to predict the outcomes. Republicans have high hopes for major gains, but I suspect Democrats will still hold a 60-40 advantage at the end of the night.
–Sheriff’s Success Amendment. Solid Defeat. Three times in the last 30 years voters have rejected attempts to amend the state Constitution to allow county sheriff’s to serve more than two consecutive terms. Nothing has changed this election cycle.