WVU’s Stedman Bailey catches a touchdown pass against Baylor on Sept. 29 — the last time the Mountaineers won a home game. (Rob Christy-US PRESSWIRE)
I’m not calling Jeffrey Loria a cheapskate, but he did offer me Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson in return for this week’s Big 12 picks. And when I pointed out my puny 24-29 record ATS to caution Loria against overpaying, he threw in Mark Buehrle:
No. 13 Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1) at West Virginia (5-4, 2-4), Saturday at 7 p.m. [Fox]
Line: Oklahoma -11
The allure of college football resides within the upsets, those mystical and inexplicable happenings that turn heavy favorites into stunned victims. This happened to the No. 1 Sooners in 2011 when they lost 41-38 to a Texas Tech that ended the season 5-7. It happened to the No. 8 Sooners in 2010 when they got gigged 33-19 by unranked Texas A&M. It happened to the No. 3 Sooners in 2007 when they lost 27-24 to a Colorado squad that closed 6-7. See where I’m headed? This Oklahoma team is stacked with NFL talent and stands one flukish fumble away from being unbeaten in the Big 12. The opposing WVU team has dropped four games in a row, was unable to field kickoffs or execute handoffs last week and has seen its defense emasculated all season. So of course, I’m taking the Mountaineers to shock OU, and in doing so, forecasting that Geno Smith will fire three touchdowns, thereby doubling the number OU has surrendered all year.
Pick: West Virginia, 42-40
No. 3 Kansas State (10-0, 7-0) at Baylor (4-5, 1-5), Saturday at 8 p.m. [ESPN]
Line: Kansas State -13
The Wildcats have ascended to No. 1 on the BCS totem poll after being picked sixth in the Big 12 preseason media poll. (If only Rupert Murdoch’s boys could’ve hacked the Bill Snyder Family rotary phone for some two-a-days intel …) Collin Klein and Company scored a season-low 23 points last week at TCU, but they’ll recover against a Baylor defense that hands out touchdowns like business cards.
Pick: Kansas State, 40-35
Iowa State (5-5, 2-5) at Kansas (1-9, 0-7), Saturday at 7 p.m. [Fox Sports Net]
Line: Iowa State -5 1/2
The Cyclones need this win to go bowling. The Jayhawks need it to salvage some respect on Senior Day in Lawrence. Just can’t bring myself to pick KU, which hasn’t beaten anything (except the law of averages) in the span of 19 league games.
Pick: Iowa State, 21-16
Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3) at Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. [Fox Sports Net]
Line: Oklahoma State -10
If this were the NFL, Roger Goodell would’ve fined Tommy Tuberville 25-large for a blow to the head, but the Big 12 commissioner let Coach Tubs escape with a mere apology for going half-Woody Hayes on a Tech graduate assistant. In truth, most Division I coaches would’ve lost their poise at the thought of losing to Kansas, but all will be forgiven after the Red Raiders pull off a minor upset in Stillwater.
Pick: Texas Tech, 45-42
Last week: 5-0 overall (2-3 against the spread)
Season to date: 46-15 overall (24-29 against the spread)
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