A Republican strategist says Democrats will decide their own party’s fate in the state House of Delegates during the coming years.
For the past decade plus, Greg Thomas says Republicans have been slowly adding to their House numbers. “It’s been a very gradual thing, really all the way back since 1996,” Thomas said.
There are now 46 Republicans in the House which is the highest number of GOP members since the 1920s. As recently as 2010, there were just 35 Republican House members.
Thomas, who ran the two unsuccessful gubernatorial campaigns for Republican Bill Maloney, says part of the reason for the gains is that the number of Democrat votes, overall, for House of Delegates candidates is trending downward.
In 2004, that number was 923,000. The total number of Democrat votes for House candidates dropped slightly in 2008 before plummeting to 577,000 during the 2012 election.
In contrast, Republican House candidates received 36,000 more votes in 2012 than 2008.
In 2008, there were 62 Republican House candidates compared with 93 Democrat candidates. Last year, there were 82 Republicans on the ballots with 87 Democrats.
“When the Republicans put up a viable candidate that’s presenting the facts, that’s running a good, aggressive campaign, they have a good shot at winning. I think that’s what you’re seeing,” Thomas said.
Thomas says, based on those gains, Republicans could take control of the state House of Delegates by 2016 or, maybe, as early as 2014.
However, he says the trend could be reversed if the Democrats, as a whole, take action.
“Republicans are doing the things they need to do to advance the cause and to move the ball down the field, but the Democrats are still the ones in control here,” Thomas said.
“If the Democrats have a good session, if they come out and they actually reform education, they control spending, they fix the legal and regulatory climates, if they go out there and do the things Republicans are saying need to be done, that’s pretty much the only thing that can stop this trend.”
The 60 day 2013 Regular Legislative Session begins on Wednesday, February 13th.