“In contemporary politics, demography is destiny.”
That is a quote from Louis Jacobson, editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, senior correspondent for PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics.
Jacobson argues that in presidential elections, three variables “are increasingly linked with partisan voting patterns: education level, race and urbanization.”
Jacobson used statistical data to rank the states 1-through-50. States with the lowest levels of education, a larger percentage of white residents and which are more rural ranked near the top, while states with larger minority populations, more urban areas and more individuals with a higher level of education ranked near the bottom.
“With a handful of exceptions, the top half of the list voted Republican in the 2020 presidential race, while the bottom half of the list voted Democratic,” he found.
Generally speaking, “Republican candidates now perform strongest among white voters without a college degree, especially if they live in rural areas. And Democrats, conversely, are preforming best among minority voters, those with at least an undergraduate degree, and those who live in or near urban areas.”
Jacobson’s demographic rankings have West Virginia at the very top, which is not surprising since our state is predominantly white, rural and less well educated. Wyoming was second, followed by Kentucky, South Dakota and Idaho. Trump won each state by a wide margin in 2020.
At the far end of the demographic rankings are Massachusetts, California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland, all Biden states.
There are, however, exceptions to the rule: Maine’s demographic ranking leans Republican, however Biden won there in 2020. Texas went for Trump in the last election, but it is closer to the Democratic end of the demographic scale. Trump won Kansas with 56 percent of the vote, but it has a higher percentage of citizens with bachelor’s degrees than most states.
But more often than not, demographics dominate.
“This exercise shows that just three carefully chosen demographic factors can explain how 20 of the 25 states in the top and bottom halves of our chart voted in the 2020 presidential election—an 80 percent accuracy rate,” Jacobson wrote.
We tend to think that presidential campaigns are about candidates’ vision, stands on the issues, performance in debates, the effectiveness of advertisements and appearances in a particular state. Clearly those elements play a role in the outcome.
However, the Jacobson research strongly suggests that a couple rudimentary characteristics about voters are significant indicators in how a state will vote.