There is a lot of speculation that West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin may run for President in 2024 as an independent candidate. Manchin has done nothing to dissuade those discussions, and he simply will not be pinned down yet about his plans. He likes to say he will do what is in the best interest of the country.
With that, here are some thoughts about why Manchin WILL run for President, but also why he WON’T:
Why he will:
–Take Manchin at his word. He believes the country is fed up with the polarized politics of Washington and is anxious for a moderate centrist who is willing to work with both parties. This has always been Manchin’s approach to governing, and a run for the presidency would give him an opportunity to “bring people together,” as Manchin likes to say, around the idea of political cooperation instead of confrontation.
–It is appealing to be wanted. The well-funded centrist group No Labels is working on ballot access in all 50 states and Manchin is among their top recruits. The No Labels organization means Manchin would have a built-in framework for his candidacy. Manchin, like every other person in high political office, has an ego and could be susceptible to No Label’s pitch.
–He could win. There is a lot of polling showing a large percentage of American voters are not enthralled with either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. An Associated Press poll last month found that nearly half of the country (47 percent) believes neither Biden nor Trump should run again. That high level of dissatisfaction leaves a giant void that could be filled by a third party candidate.
–Why not? Manchin, 75, is near the end of his political career. A re-election run in his home state would be brutal, wildly expensive, and he may lose. Does he want to go out that way? Why not take a chance on an historic run for president. Even with a loss, your national profile is raised ten-fold for whatever you may choose to do afterward.
Why he won’t:
–Deep down, Manchin’s DC experience should tell him that his desire to “bring people together” just won’t work. The two political parties are too polarized, too deeply entrenched. That pitch will appeal to some in a presidential election, but the big money and most of the national attention will be on the Republican and Democratic nominees.
–Joe Manchin, after a life in politics, has strong political instincts. Sure, he wants to be wanted—who doesn’t—but that does not make him susceptible to false praise or promises. He won’t get in the race if he senses it is a fool’s errand that may result in him losing badly and/or being blamed for taking votes away from the other candidates.
–He can’t win. The political landscape is littered with third party or independent presidential candidates. The late Ross Perot was the most successful third party candidate in modern American history and the best he could do was 18.9 percent in 1992. Because all but two states (Nebraska and Maine) allocate their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, Perot received no electoral college votes.
–Why? A Presidential campaign is grueling. It is a seemingly endless string of rallies, interviews, photo ops, bus trips and plane flights scattered across a huge country. Manchin would be subject to withering deep probes by the national press and political opponents. In the end, you lose and get blamed by half the country for their candidate’s defeat. Who needs that?
So, what do you think Manchin will do?