In October 2014, WVU President Gordon Gee made a bold prediction: Enrollment at the state’s flagship University would increase by 7,000 students over the next ten years, to at least 40,000. “And we will not choose between growing in size and growing in quality,” Gee said in his University address. “We will do both.”
Those were heady days, not only for WVU, but for higher education. More students were choosing every year to go to college. Growing student debt was not yet a front burner issue and a global pandemic was the stuff of science fiction movies.
But Gee’s grandiose prediction failed to materialize.
A demographic cliff slowed the number of available students. A tight job market made good jobs available for those without a college degree. The rising cost of going to college pushed prospective students out of the market. And, of course, the Black Swan event of the pandemic changed higher education in ways no one could have predicted.
Instead of a spike in enrollment, WVU has seen a decline from 31,000 in 2014 to about 26,000 this year, and WVU anticipates a continued drop to 21,000 by 2033. That drop coincided with rising operational costs, a growing debt load and the stagnation of state funding.
The West Virginia Center for Budget and Policy said, “Over the last decade, state higher education funding is down about a quarter, adjusted for inflation,” the think tank reports. “In fact, if West Virginia lawmakers had simply kept higher education funding at the same levels as a decade ago, West Virginia University would have an estimated additional $37.6 million in state funding for FY 2024.”
But instead, WVU is facing a $45 million budget shortfall, which will rise to $75 million annually by 2028. The University has already made cuts to cover half of the deficit, but now comes the really tough stuff: WVU is planning the elimination of programs and faculty positions.
Preliminary recommendations released last week include cutting 32 of 338 majors and eliminating 169 faculty positions. These moves are sending shock waves through the University community and garnering national attention. The Chronicle of Higher Education published a lengthy piece about the cuts.
Critics say Gee and his leadership team should have seen the enrollment decline coming and taken steps earlier to avoid the budget shortfall, and that is a legitimate complaint. Rob Alsop, WVU’s Senior Vice President for Strategic Initiatives, admitted as much during a Faculty Senate meeting in June.
“I wish I had seen around corners better or seen things differently two years ago, and I do wish I had raised the issues earlier,” Alsop said. “We can talk through the fact that I didn’t think during Covid, when we were seeing enrollment declines, that things wouldn’t bounce back. I wish in hindsight I hadn’t made that calculation.”
In fairness, the pandemic affected nearly all our institutions—education, government, the private sector—in ways no one could have predicted. The outcome, however, is that each of these institutions must adjust according to the new normal.
It would be callous to suggest that the proposed cuts at WVU, given the size of the institution, are nominal because they affect the lives of students and faculty. However, context is important. The cuts would impact 147 undergraduate and 287 graduate students, along with the faculty members targeted for elimination.
The focus of the cuts is on majors with declining enrollment. University officials argue these changes are not only about eliminating the deficit but also repositioning the University to be more customer oriented, to focus more on majors that today’s students are migrating toward.
I suspect President Gee wishes he had not been so bold in his 2014 speech. Gee has always been about imagining greatness for the state’s flagship University. He is a dynamic leader with a lifetime of experience who is aspirational, but he’s also willing to take the heat for tough choices, as he is currently doing.
Now the great expectation from nearly a decade ago has collided with stubborn realities, some of which were unforeseen. Greatness now is defined by tactical decisions about survival and adjusting to how things are, not how you wish them to be.