Another poll, and another indication that Republican Governor Jim Justice is the dominant frontrunner in the race with Representative Alex Mooney for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat. That seat comes open in 2024 now that Senator Joe Manchin has announced he is not running for re-election.
This independent poll of likely West Virginia Republican and Independent Primary Election voters by Mark Blankenship Enterprises* found that if election were held today, 61 percent said they would vote for Justice, 28 percent for Mooney, while 11 percent were undecided.
That result is very close to findings in an October survey by the Justice campaign’s own pollster, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates. It had Justice at 62 percent and Mooney at 23 percent.
Here is more from the Blankenship survey:
–Trump’s popularity among West Virginia Republicans and Independents remains historically high. Seventy-nine percent have a “very favorable” opinion of Trump. Only eight percent view him somewhat or very unfavorably.
–Donald Trump’s recent endorsement is a huge advantage for Justice. Sixty-nine percent of the Republicans and Independents who responded said Trump’s backing makes them “more likely” to vote for Justice for Senate.
–Justice’s job approval ratings rival that of U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito. A whopping 88 percent of respondents say they either “strongly approve” (42 percent) or “somewhat approve” (46 percent) of Justice, while that number for Capito is 78 percent. (41 percent “strongly approve” of Capito, while 37 percent “somewhat approve.”)
–Justice is way ahead of Mooney on the question of whether Republican Primary voters have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each candidate. Forty percent have a “very favorable” opinion of Justice, while just 18 percent view Mooney that way. Perhaps more important, one in four voters (28 percent) view Mooney “somewhat unfavorable” (19 percent) or “very unfavorable” (9 percent).
–Mooney is backed by the Club for Growth, a conservative pro-business organization. It has pledged up to $10 million to Mooney’s campaign. However, the survey found when voters are told that the organization’s PAC has “spent millions of dollars attacking former President Donald Trump,” 75 percent say they are less likely to vote for a candidate that has the Club’s backing.
Pollster Mark Blankenship said the overall numbers show Justice in an enviable position heading into next year’s Primary.
“The data indicate Governor Justice maintains incredible strength in the West Virginia Republican Primary. This is bolstered by, but not solely attributable to, President Trump’s consistent popularity among West Virginia voters,” Blankenship said.
“It is clear to me voters are ready to reward a candidate’s support of President Trump and equally likely to punish a candidate’s (direct or indirect) opposition to the former president,” he said.
Polls are only a snapshot in time, an indicator of how voters feel now. The Primary is still nearly six months away. However, the surveys show Mooney has yet to make any inroads on Justice’s significant advantages in job approval, popularity or on the horse race question.
*(The Sample Size is N=428 (Likely WV GOP Primary Voters – to include Republican and Independent registrants, and interviews distributed according to state population demographics. The method was mixed mode consisting of telephone and online panel/web respondents. The Margin of Error is +/- 5%.)