West Virginia continues to lose population, but the state is also gaining population.
Yes, that sounds contradictory, but let me explain the results of the latest U.S. Census figures for our state.
First, the state’s overall population remains on a steady decline. The Census data show that West Virginia’s population as of July 2023 was 1,770,071. That is a decline of 23,642 from April 1, 2020.
Those are the latest numbers reflecting the ongoing trend here. The state’s population peaked at two million in 1950 and has been steadily declining over the past seven decades. All the while, the country’s population has doubled to 331 million over the same period.
Historically, the primary driver of the state’s population decline was the mass exodus on the Hillbilly Highway as West Virginians headed south to find work. However, the reason now for our state’s continued population drop is that more people are dying than are being born. During the three year period that ended July 1, 2023, Census figures show West Virginia had 89,419 deaths, but only 55,715 births.
The steady population decline continues to be a headwind for the state’s economy. Population growth is a key component of economic development. Business and industry need workers who then fuel their local economies through consumption. Those people also demand more public services, but they pay for those services through greater tax collections.
Now here is the part about the state gaining population.
The Census figures show that for the second year in a row, West Virginia has had positive net migration—that is, more people are moving into the state than leaving. The state’s net migration gain over the past three years was 9,730. That’s not a lot of people, but it is an improvement on the historic outward migration south.
The Census data do not explain why more people are moving here than leaving, but I have a couple of guesses.
The pandemic demonstrated that a lot of work could be done from home rather than the office. Workers did not necessarily have to be near the workplace; they could be anywhere so why not here? West Virginia has more space and a much lower cost of living than urban areas.
West Virginia is finally being recognized nationally for its outdoor amenities. State leaders have been pushing our outdoor recreation opportunities for years, but it just now seems to be catching on. Just last month Architectural Digest magazine ranked the community of Thomas in Tucker County as the fourth best mountain town in the country, while Elkins comes in at number 30.
The state is also seeing a growth in economic development. Just today, the South Korea-based electronics giant LG is expected to make a major announcement of a tech investment in West Virginia. This announcement, and others like it over the last couple of years, will draw more people to the state and provide additional encouragement for natives to stay.
A couple years of positive net migration are not enough to represent a trend, nor do they reverse the generational decline in population, but they are clearly positive signs that are pointing in the right direction.