Democratic candidates running for statewide office in West Virginia this year are facing nearly gale-force headwinds. The biggest challenge is the unrelenting trend in voter registration.
Consider this:
The last time a Democrat won statewide in West Virginia was 2018. Senator Joe Manchin narrowly defeated Republican Patrick Morrisey by just three percentage points, or 19,000 votes. But at the time, Manchin had a significant advantage in voter registration.
In November 2018, there were 521,298 Democrats and 405,311 Republicans. Forty-two percent of all voters were registered as Democrats, while only 32 percent were signed up as Republicans. A Democrat had a decent chance of winning by just getting members of their party to turn out.
However, the registration advantage has flipped.
As of last month, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 477,656 to 357,918. Forty percent of all voters are now Republican, while only 30 percent are Democrats. Therefore, any Democrat running statewide must get all their party’s votes, plus a chunk of Republicans and independents.
That is not impossible, but it is highly improbable.
The early numbers from the recent Primary Election reflect not only the Republican registration advantage, but also GOP enthusiasm. Counties have until August 2 to report their vote-by-party data to the Secretary of State’s Office, but about half of the numbers are in.
The data so far show that 49 percent of all Primary Election voters were Republicans, meaning the party outperformed their registration by nine percentage points. Democrats represented 30 percent of all Primary voters, so their party’s turnout was identical to their registration. Independents underperformed by four percentage points, 21 percent turnout compared with 25 percent registration.
Now throw in the Trump factor.
Donald Trump will be at the top of the ticket again. If the last two elections are any indication, Trump will win by 40 points and that means coattails for down ballot Republicans. Democratic candidates have the unenviable task of trying to convince some of those Trump voters to cross over after they vote for president.
Democrats running statewide this year may look back at Manchin’s 2018 victory as a sign that a Democrat can still win here. However, whatever optimism they gain from that must be tempered with the new realities of 2024.