A few years ago, my wife was at the grocery store when a fellow shopper spoke to her in the freezer section. He reached for a half gallon of ice cream, looked at the price, and casually blamed then-President Barack Obama for how much he had to pay.
And so it goes for every president.
Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings said, “in a typical presidential term, the president might get credit or blame, first of all, because he has taken credit… and then it seems fair that if you’re going to take credit, we’re also going to blame you.”
That criticism is often unfair, especially when it comes to the economy. There are myriad reasons why the stock market fluctuates, unemployment rises and falls, interest rates shift, inflation spikes, and yes, why a half gallon of ice cream now costs more than it used to.
But there are occasions when the responsibility for events does fall specifically and unequivocally on the president, and this is one of those times. The war with Iran—and the fallout from that war—rest solely on The Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.
It was Donald Trump’s decision to declare war on Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu encouraged him, and administration hawks supported an attack, but the decision was the president’s.
Now the United States is entangled in a dangerous stalemate. The Iranian military has been degraded, but there has been no regime change, the Iranian people have not risen up and taken over, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has pledged to safeguard the country’s nuclear and missile technologies, and the Strait of Hormuz is a shipping no-man’s-land.
All this after Trump declared “total and complete victory” in the war on April 7th.
At home, gasoline prices have soared. AAA motor club reports the national average at $4.46 a gallon Monday, an increase of 50 percent since the war began. Skyrocketing energy prices have a ripple effect, increasing the cost of other goods and services. Meat and dairy are among the most affected because of the cost of fuel, feed and fertilizer.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that causes Americans to tighten their belts. “When gas prices go up, that’s disposable income coming out of people’s pockets, so they’re going to spend less on other things,” Powell said.
Then there is the diminishing stockpile of U.S. weaponry. As the New York Times reported a week ago, “Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year.”
The war has already cost somewhere between $25 billion and $35 billion, according to independent estimates, adding to a growing national debt. The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports the debt has reached $31.27 trillion, surpassing annual GDP for the first time since WW II. In fairness, Congress has to assume some responsibility for years of failing to keep spending in line with revenue.
But back to Trump.
A growing number of Americans are blaming Trump for an unpopular war and the fallout. Pew Research reports Trump’s approval rating is down to 34 percent, the lowest of his second term. There has been a steep decline in those who say he “keeps his promises,” down from 51 percent after he won re-election in November 2024 to just 38 percent now.
Of course, Trump has a way of surviving and redirecting the narrative. If he is able to negotiate an end to war with Iran, if Iran emerges with a less theocratic leadership and more freedom for its people, if Iran abandons its nuclear weapons program, if the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure, then Trump can claim credit.
However, those are a lot of “ifs.” In the meantime, this is Trump’s War. He owns it, and he deserves blame for all the negative impacts that have resulted, including the price of ice cream.