As a lifelong West Virginian, I try hard to be optimistic about our state and its future. However, that hopefulness frequently bumps up against data, and the latest U.S. Census figures are illustrative of one of West Virginia’s most consistent challenges: population decline.
West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy Senior Policy Analyst Sean O’Leary has posted an extensive breakdown of the latest Census data. In summary, the numbers show a continued drop in the number of people living in the Mountain State. Here are a few of the key points from the Census highlighted by O’Leary:
–West Virginia’s population has declined by 1.4 percent in the last five years, the biggest drop of any state.
–Only eight counties experienced growth during that period. Berkeley County stands out with an addition of nearly 17,000 new residents.
–More people are dying than are being born in the state. That phenomenon is exacerbated by the fact that West Virginia’s population is older and sicker than average. Life expectancy for men and women is 15 to 16 years lower than the leading state (Hawaii).
–The population decline and reduced life expectancy are particularly acute in southern counties, especially McDowell County.
So, what does this all mean?
West Virginia does have pockets of population growth and net migration. The eastern panhandle stands out, as does Monongalia County. These are the areas that have the strongest economies. Research shows that population growth and economic opportunities go hand in hand.
Unfortunately, those population growth areas are outliers. Just as net migration and job creation are linked, so too are population declines and a lack of wealth-building opportunities. It’s a conundrum. People tend to locate where there are jobs, and economic growth typically happens where there is a workforce, which then creates more consumption and investment.
West Virginia’s challenge is to expand the paths to prosperity to other parts of the state. The primary strategy of the state’s last two governors is to lower income taxes. A lower tax burden on citizens is one driver of net migration, but it is not a silver bullet.
Research shows people move from one state to another for a variety of reasons: job opportunities, change in marital status, housing cost, better neighborhood, overall quality of life, quality education, retirement, climate. Taxes are only at the margins for most people.
The challenge for policy makers is to consider a holistic approach to growth and consider more than just taxes when trying to make the state attractive to movers. House Speaker Roger Hanshaw and his team laid important groundwork the last legislative session with the passage of bills related to his “Jobs First Opportunity Everywhere” agenda. The 16 bills addressed workforce-ready education, business site preparation, and related economic development issues.
That’s a good place to start, but we have a long way to go. In the meantime, according to the Census Bureau, West Virginia will continue to lose population.