COMMENTARY
Referencing “a couple hundred pages of fairly dense data,” Bob Bowlsby says conference expansion will sit atop the summer reading list of Big 12 decision-makers.
Those analytics are the product of an 18-month deep dive into the financial ramifications of upsizing vs. maintaining the 10-school status quo. Based on the volume of information consultants are providing, no revenue trajectory was left unaccounted.
Maybe the data will prove persuasive, but that’s only if truly undecideds remain at the table. Given the no-growth stance of Texas AD Mike Perrin and the diametrically dug-in position of Oklahoma president David Boren, here’s guessing highlighter pens are marking up line-items that fortify previously held opinions.
While Bowlsby doesn’t expect any closure during this week’s Big 12 spring meetings, he pledged “to push for decisions to be made one way or the other by the end of the summer.”
He also navigates the middle ground like scouts sweeping a mine field.
With regard to league membership and its impact on adding a championship game, the commish said Wednesday night: “There’s an awful lot right about the way we conduct our competition … and I think we’re going to be a little bit slow to depart from that.”
Concerning the possibility of expansion candidates shaping their pitches around the new analytics: ”I don’t consider there to be a list of expansion candidates. We haven’t made any decisions to add anybody—we haven’t made any decisions at all. Any of that would be premature.”
Well, of course there are expansion candidates, otherwise why undertake 18 months of investigation in the first place? Maybe Bowlsby prefers to label them “Aspirants” or “Beggars” or “Group of 5 Refugees,” but certainly there are candidates.
The vitriol that fractured the league in 2011 has dissipated, if only because UT’s harshest critics, Nebraska and Texas A&M, departed for other leagues. Still, with up to seven Big 12 schools rumored to favor expansion, let’s see how that vaunted Texas arrogance affects the dialogue this summer.
Only Texas Tech and TCU appear to be siding with UT, though three schools are precisely enough to block expansion. All it takes is one to switch allegiances, and that big book of data might as well be titled “What BYU Can Do for You.”
Texas, despite its sagging football fortunes, still wields massive financial influence and must be pacified for the Big 12 to remain healthy. Yet the Longhorns don’t have quite as much leverage as they did five years ago upon threatening a move to the Pac-12. The emergence of the Pac-12 Network, even with viewership and distribution off to a paltry start, creates the same complexities UT faces from Big 12 peers who want their own conference channel.
Now, if Texas were to call up the ACC …
But enough with the supposition. Bowlsby tells us there are hard-and-fast numbers to be perused and revenue projections to be extrapolated before the dog days of decisions arrive. In the meantime, building a consensus is tricky, with some schools prioritizing access to the College Football Playoff, others wanting to pool third-tier rights, and some simply craving stability.
“Depends a little bit on who you ask,” Bowlsby said. With three interim presidents in play—and Baylor’s AD having resigned—even the “who” part is in flux.