Listen to “Crazy Silly ‘Shift’ in WV; Smith’s Claims Fall Flat” on Spreaker.
West Virginia Senate President Randy Smith released a statement Wednesday after the midterm election claiming voters returned a Republican supermajority to the state Senate because “they’ve seen what Senate Republicans do with the trust voters place in us.” He went on to say, “voters gave us a clear mandate to keep going, and that’s exactly what we intend to do.”
Reality does not match Smith’s words.
First, Smith seems to have forgotten that he doesn’t speak for all Senate Republicans.
West Virginia’s Senate is riddled with factions. Claiming credit for the victories of Republican senators who are not aligned with him falls flat.
He doesn’t speak for Senator Tom Takubo of Kanawha County who is widely recognized as leading at least one of the anti-Smith factions. Takubo won re-election Tuesday night.
Senator Vince Deeds, R – Greenbrier who also won re-election Tuesday night, said Thursday on Talkline that while he respects Smith, he believes the president may have missed the mark in his comments. Deeds noted the lack of (Senate) Republican focus on the economy as a catalyst to Democratic gains.
More than a few Republican senators have distinct philosophical and political differences with Smith and members of his core faction.
Treating every election victory as an endorsement — alignment — of his leadership and agenda seems disingenuous; so too does thinking all those not on the ballot this time around, and not part of his faction, have suddenly decided to follow him and his core supporters.
Then there’s the “mandate.”
It seems foolish to claim one when your party has lost ground. And Republicans lost ground to Democrats on Tuesday.
Democrats won three Senate races, flipping two Republican seats and bringing their ranks in the chamber to four. But the number of seats won, lost or held doesn’t tell the full story. To understand the direction voters moved, consider the swing.
Just what it sounds like, swing measures movement toward one party or the other between elections. A county can remain solidly Republican while moving substantially toward Democrats.
Compared with the 2024 general election, all 55 West Virginia counties swung toward Democrats on Tuesday from multiple viewpoints and races as it concerns the state Senate, with shifts ranging from the low double digits to the mid-30s in percentage points. No county moved further into the Republican column compared to baseline 2024 contests. **
Those comparisons don’t establish why voters shifted, or isolate their views of state Senate leadership. They do, however, make Smith’s claim of a clear mandate much harder to swallow.
Republicans retained an overwhelming majority. But retaining power while losing ground is hardly an unqualified endorsement to keep doing exactly what you’ve been doing.
That looks more like a warning — a decline that could deepen without corrective action.
Republicans in West Virginia haven’t focused on the economy as much as they should. Arguably, much of the blame rests with Smith and his faction — especially juxtaposed against House Republicans who began last session with an economic development focus.
Democrats, meanwhile — even when fixing certain problems lies beyond a state legislator’s ability — chose to listen and acknowledge voters’ concerns. Too many Republicans kept rehashing social issues with little connection to the problems West Virginians face every day.
Smith is affable and generally good natured. But, his words only serve to further crystallize the divide between his faction and other Republicans — and between his faction and Democrats.
A smaller majority and a statewide swing toward the opposition should prompt reflection. Smith’s statement suggests he sees little reason for any.
** Editor’s Note: The WV Senate 4th shows an inflated Republican swing as a result of the Democratic and Libertarian candidates’ invalidation.