We now have our first death in West Virginia from COVID-19, an 88-year-old Marion County woman. That is sad, and tragically there will be more as a result of the pandemic.
However, West Virginia still has an opportunity to bend the curve. The infection rate is running at just four percent (percent of positive results of those tested).
COVID-19 Czar Dr. Clay Marsh continues to praise West Virginians for taking the threat seriously and abiding by the guidelines health officials constantly stress.
“If 90 percent of our people do that—and right now I believe that’s the kind of impact we’re having, that’s the kind of cooperation we are having—we can get by and almost be like business as usual.”
That’s a huge “if.”
Take this past Saturday. It was an unseasonably warm and generally sunny day across the state. Anecdotally, it appeared some folks were going about business as usual, even though these are far from usual times.
I saw a bunch of people crowded together on a deck having a party. I guess it’s true—you can’t fix stupid.
Many folks, understandably tired of being cooped up in their homes, spent part of the day outside. Hopefully, they maintained a safe social distance.
Also, there will be increasing economic pressure to try to return to some sense of normalcy. The constant advice for people to stay home, combined with the shutdown of non-essential services and the associated layoffs, have brought segments of our economy to a halt.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warns that lifting restrictions too early would be a huge mistake. “You’re going to be in trouble,” Fauci said on CNN Sunday.
Fauci believes the country still needs more testing and real-time results. Having results within a few minutes would make it much easier to isolate infections and trace individuals who have been in contact with the virus.
Modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the peak infection period for the country is still a couple weeks away. That same modeling suggests West Virginia’s peak won’t come until April 26th.
If that’s even close to accurate, West Virginians need to stay the current course for a few more weeks. Each day West Virginia keeps the infection rate at below five percent, and healthcare providers gain more time to prepare and improve testing, is a small victory.
If we remain vigilant, the short-term pain will lead to a long-term gain for our state.