The 2026 General Election is over, but behind-the-scenes maneuvering for the next election in West Virginia is already underway.
Former Governor and current U.S. Senator Jim Justice continues to position himself for another gubernatorial run in 2028. As always with Justice, he could change his mind tomorrow, but all indications are that he will soon announce his candidacy.
That would set up a Republican primary showdown between Justice and sitting Governor Patrick Morrisey, assuming Morrisey seeks a second term. A Justice-Morrisey matchup would likely clear the field of other serious Republican contenders.
Two sources I spoke with referenced a credible poll making the rounds that reportedly shows Justice leading Morrisey by eight to 10 points if the election were held today. Justice has to be encouraged by those numbers, but Morrisey has two years to close the gap.
Justice reportedly leads Morrisey in approval and likability, but Morrisey is a relentless fundraiser and tireless campaigner. And West Virginia voters have historically been reluctant to throw sitting governors out of office.
Morrisey and Justice could find themselves locked in an expensive, rough-and-tumble primary, with the winner emerging battered and short on cash. The price tag being tossed around is $10 million to $15 million.
That could create an opening for the Democratic nominee.
Democratic political consultant Mike Plante says he has been contacted by, or knows of, at least four potentially credible candidates who have expressed interest in running. (We’ll get to the names in a future commentary, after I talk with them.)
Plante told me this represents a significant change from recent elections.
“In recent years it’s been hard to recruit top of the ticket for Congress and statewide offices,” Plante said. “We’ve had a lot of activists who mean well, but tend to be on the far left of the party and that hurts them in the General Election.”
Democratic interest has increased following an election in which the party made gains in the House of Delegates, the state Senate and overall voting trends.
In the 19 state Senate races, votes cast for Republican candidates declined 16 percent compared with the 2022 midterm election, while votes for Democratic candidates increased 21 percent.
Republican incumbents Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and Reps. Carol Miller and Riley Moore all won reelection, but their margins narrowed significantly. Notably, all three lost their home counties.
Not by much, but still …
“The pendulum is swinging back in the other direction,” Republican consultant Greg Thomas said on Talkline the day after the election.
State Democratic Party Chairman Mike Pushkin says the Democratic National Committee, under the leadership of Ken Martin, has shown renewed interest in West Virginia, increasing its monthly financial support from $15,000 to $22,500.
“Ken has been very clear about his philosophy; Democrats have to compete everywhere, and that means rebuilding and investing in state parties, including those in deep red states like West Virginia.”
But the state Democratic Party and its candidates will need considerably more help to compete financially with Republicans in West Virginia. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) have largely passed over the state in recent election cycles.
Those organizations typically invest in races where polling suggests Democrats have a legitimate chance of winning and where candidates demonstrate an ability to raise substantial amounts of money themselves. Neither condition has been particularly evident in West Virginia in recent years.
For West Virginians weary of the seemingly endless barrage of political advertising, the election’s end offers a welcome respite.
But there is no such break for party leaders and potential candidates. For them, speculation is already giving way to preparation for 2028.