The Washington Post has obtained a copy of an internal memo of a strategy drafted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for reopening the country.
The plan is heavy on warnings—even a cautious, phased approach “will entail a significant risk of resurgence of the virus”—however, the framework does outline conditions under which “it is appropriate to lift community mitigation measures.”
Federal health officials believe that reopening is conditioned upon four criteria. Here’s what they are and some observations about how West Virginia is doing in each category.
—Confidence that incidence of infection is genuinely low: West Virginia gets a great score here. Our positive test rate is just under four percent. That’s well below the national rate of 19 percent and lower than any of our surrounding states.
—A surveillance system that is well functioning and capable of promptly detecting any increase in incidence: This one is tougher because it is about significantly expanding our ability to test. About one percent of the state’s population has been tested, the same as the national average, but health officials believe our ability to test and get results quickly needs to be expanded significantly.
—A public health system that is reacting robustly to all cases of COVID-19 and has surge capacity to react to an increase in incidence: So far, so good in West Virginia, where health officials and the National Guard have responded quickly to hot spots and outbreaks. But that capacity could be stretched if there is a surge in outbreaks.
—A health system that has the capacity in all respects, including inpatient beds, staffing, and other services, to handle all cases and that is in a position to rapidly scale up to deal with a surge in cases: Hospitals have had several weeks to prepare so West Virginia is in good shape here. Modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows West Virginia has enough hospital beds and ventilators.
West Virginia COVID-19 Czar Dr. Clay Marsh said during Wednesday’s briefing that those four criteria are precisely what the state is working toward. “We are following the recipe almost perfectly and we are generating the capability in the very near future to be able to meet those requirements.
Marsh said so far West Virginia’s response has been very broad but going forward it needs to be more targeted. “We need to be more scalpel than hammer.”
Then there is the question of whether Governor Justice reopens the entire state or has rolling openings depending on how regions of the state are faring. The state has “hot spots” because of spikes in community spread, but there are also areas that have been virtually untouched, at least according to test results.
Justice said the decisions will be “a tough, tough, tough balancing act” with no perfect answer. “I want to get as close to being right as we possibly can.”
The best way to get it close to “right” is to continue following health directives while taking steps to adhere to the criteria established by the CDC and FEMA. West Virginia is already headed in the right direction on both fronts.