President Obama will not carry West Virginia in November. He won’t even come close. The most recent poll numbers available (Public Policy Polling last October) showed just 28 percent approved of the President’s job performance.
And that was before the Obama Administration’s EPA announced proposed new rules on greenhouse gas emissions that will make it virtually impossible to build coal-burning power plants in the future.
The EPA’s direction under this President has been, and continues to be, devastating for the coal industry. That costs Obama politically in the leading coal producing states—Wyoming, West Virginia and Kentucky—but they weren’t going to support Obama anyway.
The President loses nothing politically by leaving coal out of his “all-of-the-above” energy approach, but he appeases environmentalists and other liberals who are passionate about eliminating coal.
There is, however, a political trickle-down that has West Virginia Democrats more nervous than a red hat on his first day underground.
Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin and Congressman Nick Rahall all responded quickly last week, criticizing the EPA for its new crackdown on carbon emissions. They are on the ballot this year and they know Obama and his EPA make them more vulnerable.
Tomblin followed up Monday with a campaign to get West Virginians to complain to the EPA during the 60-day public comment period over the new carbon emission rules.
Tomblin normally speaks in measured tones, but the letter he’s encouraging supporters to send to “Washington bureaucrats” had an angry tone. “We’ve had enough of your war on coal,” read the letter. “We’re going to fight you on this every step of the way.”
The subject line in the email read “Our message to the EPA,” but notably the letter itself does not mention EPA administrator Lisa Jackson or President Obama.
The Tomblin campaign is evidently trying to craft a way to respond forcefully to the EPA’s proposed rules, but not personally attack the President. After all, perhaps as many as half of all Democrats who will vote in this year’s West Virginia General Election will vote for Obama. Tomblin does not want to alienate them by being too harsh on the President.
Tomblin’s Republican challenger, Bill Maloney, was quick to jump on Tomblin’s letter, calling it a “stunt.” Maloney also upped the ante by saying, “Earl Ray Tomblin has been too weak to stand up to President Obama and the EPA.”
Maloney’s people know that Tomblin can only go so far in his criticism of the President. That leaves Maloney open to try to link Tomblin to Obama on the EPA issue at every opportunity.
Tomblin may respond even more forcefully down the road. There’s talk the state could sue the EPA over the new regs. Naturally, Maloney would still find a way to criticize Tomblin, but voters are smart enough to know when a candidate is serious and when he’s just looking for cover.
West Virginians are familiar enough with President Obama that they know what they think of him. There’s not much room for opinions to change. However, voters are still getting to know Tomblin and Maloney, even though Tomblin has been Governor for a year and a half and Maloney ran against Tomblin in last year’s special election.
Obama’s Election Day fate in West Virginia is predetermined, but what still must play out is how his Presidency will influence the Governor’s race and other key contests.