In politics, the race card always seems near the top of the deck, a convenient deal at the first sign of trouble.
And so it did not take long after the West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas Primary Elections, where four out ten voters picked an alternative to President Obama, that the race card was played.
Chris Cillizza, writing for The Fix political blog in the Washington Post, said the results “have drawn a collective eyeroll from Democrats–and many others who closely follow national politics—who ascribe the underperformance by the incumbent to a very simple thing: racism.”
Cillizza, a normally astute political observer, appears to have taken the Democratic bait: if all these Democrats and independents are voting against Obama, then there must be something wrong with them.
But before you flood Cillizza’s inbox with hate mail, know that his piece goes on to state that the racism theory is “almost entirely unprovable because it relies on assuming knowledge about voter motivations that—without being a mindreader—no one can know.”
Still, that leaves those who challenge the theory in the same spot rying to disprove something that, based on the scant evidence, is unprovable. Memo to West Virginia Democrats and independents who voted for jailbird Keith Judd: starting your defense with, “I’m not a racist, but…” puts you in a tough spot.
In fact, there are legitimate and rational reasons why Obama does not fare well in the Mountain State.
The policies of this President and his EPA are detrimental to the coal industry. The fact that coal employment is up belies the future impact of the new regulations. Coal and its supporters have pushed back, spreading an anti-Obama message that is resonating with voters.
The EPA policies and the coal campaign have generated no response from the Obama campaign. It’s evident that the President has written off West Virginia for 2012, so the campaign is not wasting any resources here.
Additionally, the President has no high profile surrogate to speak for him. Even Democratic politicians who enjoy broad statewide support, distance themselves from the President and his policies. If Senator Joe Manchin and Governor Earl Ray Tomblin aren’t sure they are going to vote for Obama, why should other West Virginians?
The direction of the Democratic Party under President Obama has left West Virginia Democrats behind. As the party has moved farther to the left, it has become increasingly out of step with West Virginia Democrats, who see themselves more in the mold of the late Senator Robert Byrd.
The separation of West Virginia Democrats from the national party didn’t start with Obama. Despite big Democratic voter registration, West Virginia chose George Bush over Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
Of course some of the anti-Obama vote may have been racist. No doubt a few even believe Barack Obama is a Muslim (he isn’t) who wasn’t born in the United States (he was). But it’s implausible that race motivated more than 73,000 voters to choose Keith Judd over Barack Obama.
Additionally, since virtually no one knew who Keith Judd was, how did voters know he’s not black?
But, even with the race card, consider the rest of the deck. The larger question is how President Obama managed to get 59 percent of the vote.