Election Day is finally here. The voting today and the counting of the votes tonight will provide answers to questions that have lingered throughout the campaign. Here is what has piqued my interest this election cycle in West Virginia.
— If there is one certainty today it is that Donald Trump will carry West Virginia. His margin here could be higher than nearly every other state that he wins, probably around 60 percent or better. His total is a matter of curiosity, but of greater significance is his down-ballot impact, especially since West Virginia no longer has straight-ticket voting. Will Trump help carry other Republicans across the line or will voters shift back and forth on their ballots?
— Has Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Cole closed the gap with Jim Justice? Our polling corresponded with Justice’s polling, showing the Democrat with a consistent lead throughout the campaign. Cole supporters insist it is much closer, and races do have a tendency to tighten up in the final days. Additionally, what percentage of the vote does Mountain Party candidate Charlotte Pritt receive? If she gets into double digits it could hurt Justice.
— Does Patrick Morrisey hold on? The Republican Attorney General has been locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Doug Reynolds. The race has been expensive and nasty at times. Morrisey is believed to have his eye on a challenge to U.S. Senator Joe Manchin in 2018, but a loss today would put a serious dent in that plan and return the AG’s seat to a Democrat.
— Does the balance of power in the Board of Public Works change? The Republican inroads the last couple of elections have not extended very far into these offices. Yes, Morrisey won the Attorney General’s race four years ago, but going into this election Democrats still controlled the offices of Treasurer, Secretary of State and Auditor. These Constitutional offices have established a bulkhead for the Democrats. Let’s see if they hold them or lose ground.
— Who wins the Senate? Republicans hold a narrow 18-16 advantage and 18 seats are up this cycle. At least 14 of those races are competitive and perhaps half of those could be considered too close to call. The Democratic Party has gone all-in on the Senate to try to regain control, while the Republicans hope to expand their majority. This will be a huge election night story.
— Who wins the House? Two years ago, Democrats held a narrow 53-47 advantage in the House. That lead was swept away in the 2014 election as Republicans gained 17 seats to take control of the House with a 64-36 advantage. Even the Republican faithful believe they will lose some seats tonight, but how many and do they keep the majority?
— Surprises? All of us in the political prognostication business may think we’re pretty smart, but we always miss some upsets. I’m anxious to see where they appear.
— MetroNews election coverage begins at 7:06 tonight. We will be broadcasting live and continuously until at least midnight. You can follow the results on our website at wvmetronews.com.