There are now more registered Republican voters than Democrats in Logan County. The latest figures from the Secretary of State’s office show there are 7,707 Republicans, 7,699 Democrats and 3,808 Independents.
Logan joins Boone County as the latest of the once deep blue southern West Virginia counties to switch to red. The flip would have been unheard of a few short years ago, but it has become inevitable during the last two decades as the historic democratic stronghold on the Mountain State faded away.
West Virginia joined the rest of the depression-ravaged country in 1932 in electing Democrat Franklin Roosevelt President. The state would remain solidly democratic for the next 70 years, with only occasional Republicans managing to win a statewide race.
Richard Brisbin writes in his book “West Virginia Politics and Government,” that between 1932 and 2004, of the 139 terms for statewide office up for election, all but ten were filled by Democrats. (Three of the ten Republican terms were filled by Arch Moore.)
The shift began in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush beat Democrat Al Gore, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican to carry West Virginia since Herbert Hoover in 1928. Republican Shelley Moore Capito also broke through in the 2000 election, narrowly winning a seat in the House of Representatives.
State Republican Party leaders Kris Warner and Gary Abernathy used the momentum of those two races and the leadership of Capito to build the party, and the transition was on. Old line Democrats aged out and died off while newer voters registered as Republicans. Conservative Democrats, frustrated with the national party, switched their registration to Republican or Independent. Democratic politicians switched parties to keep up with the trend.
One by one, West Virginia counties flipped from blue to red. By 2014, Republicans had a majority in 12 counties. The GOP picked up eleven more counties by September 2020. By the 2024 Primary Election, the number was up to 40 counties. By then, Republicans had gained a statewide registration advantage of 40 percent of voters to 31 percent for Democrats and 25 percent as no party/Independent.
And now just three Democratic counties remain—McDowell, Mingo and Monongalia—and they are trending toward red. Republicans are just 32 registrations behind the Democrats in Mingo County. In Monongalia, Democrats outnumber Republicans by just 74 voters. McDowell still has 1,535 more Democrats than Republicans.
Statewide, 44 percent of all voters (526,528) are Republican while 27 percent (326,197) are Democrats. The registration trend since 2000 has included a major increase in the number of individuals who are Independent or have no party affiliation. Twenty-five percent of all voters (306,746) are in that category.
Notably, the state Republican Party has shut independents out of its Primary Election. It is unclear whether that will have an impact in the upcoming General Election, if angry Independents who might normally vote Republican cast votes for Democrats.
Democrats badly need those Independents. The numbers show how difficult it will be for Democrats to win upcoming statewide or even some local and regional races without them. And since there is no sign of the red wave ending, Democrats are going to need that help for years to come.