Poll numbers show Governor Jim Justice holds a distinct advantage to win nomination by the Republican Party in the May Primary Election. The MetroNews West Virginia Poll released this week finds that if the election were held today, 56 percent would support Justice compared with 21 percent for Woody Thrasher and 11 percent for Mike Folk.
(Read more about the poll results here.)
Justice’s numbers have improved slightly since our August poll, when 53 percent of Republicans and Independents supported him. Thrasher’s numbers have improved from 19 percent to 21 percent, while Folk has dropped a point. However, with a margin of error of 4.4 percent, none of the changes are statistically significant.
It is clear, however, that the challengers have a long way to go to catch Justice by the May 12 election, just 150 days from today.
The poll shows Justice has a decided edge in name recognition. Seventy-nine percent of likely voters have heard “a great deal” or “a lot” about Justice. Just 18 percent know that much about Thrasher and only nine percent have significant familiarity with Folk.
Justice can generate news nearly every day because he’s the Governor. Just showing up for an event is likely to get covered. Thrasher and Folk have a much more difficult time generating earned media, which means they must spend even more money and time just to get their names out.
However, despite his lead Justice also has vulnerabilities.
Morning Consult lists Justice as among the least popular Governors in the country. His approval rating is just 42 percent, while 47 percent disapprove of the job he is doing. That’s a problem for the Justice campaign and it suggests that some of those who say today they would vote for Justice might be soft in their support.
Also, his primary opponents have not yet turned their full attention to Justice’s record. The often-heard criticism of the Governor is that he does not live in Charleston and his companies don’t pay their bills. You can bet his challengers will make sure voters hear that.
West Virginia voters don’t often turn out incumbent Governors, but it does happen.
In the 2000 election, incumbent Republican Governor Cecil Underwood lost his re-election bid to Democrat Bob Wise, 50 percent to 47 percent. Incumbent Republican Governor Arch Moore was defeated by Democrat Gaston Caperton in 1988 59 percent to 41 percent.
Of course, those were General Elections, not primaries. It is even more difficult to convince members of a party to replace their candidate. But Justice is vulnerable here, too. Remember, Justice ran and was elected in 2016 as a Democrat and then he switched parties, so he is running for the nomination of the Republican Party for the first time.
Meanwhile, the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor is wide open. We’ll reveal the MetroNews West Virginia Poll numbers in that race later this morning on Talkline and on our website.