We have been hearing for several weeks now that increased testing capacity for the COVID-19 virus is one of the keys to not only controlling the spread but also getting the country’s economy back on track.
Harvard University released an influential study earlier this month projecting that the number of tests would have to increase threefold to open the economy and stay open. “The more we test, the more we can be confident that we are capturing all the infected people in the U.S.,” the study said.
At the time the study was released, West Virginia was testing about 42 people per 100,000 population. West Virginia has a population of just under 1.8 million people. So, according to the Harvard study, West Virginia needed to dramatically increase its testing, and it has.
The total number of test results has shot up between April 20 and April 26, from just over 22,000 a week ago to over 42,000 at the end of the day Sunday. That averages out to more than 2,800 tests per day, or more than 150 per 100,000 population.
(Here is a link to the DHHR dashboard with testing information.)
In other words, West Virginia has quickly reached the threshold of tripling its daily testing capacity, as suggested by the Harvard study. However, the percent of positive test results has not increased nearly as fast.
Back on April 20, West Virginia had 908 positive cases reported. One week later, the state had 1,053. That is an increase of just 16 percent in positive cases during that week, while testing nearly doubled. One important caveat, however; the expanded nursing home testing included all residents and employees, even if they’re not symptomatic.
That has driven down the infection rate. It was at four percent back on April 20, but as of yesterday morning it was down to just under two-and-a-half percent. Governor Justice cited the low infection rate as a benchmark for reopening the state.
Justice has unveiled a reopening plan spread over the next six weeks, but it is contingent upon the state’s infection rate remaining below three percent for three consecutive days starting yesterday.
“So it gives us the metrics, the metrics to where you can watch it, I can watch it and absolutely all health officials can watch it and we can stay right on top of it together,” Justice said.
Credit state health officials, the nursing homes, county health departments, front line health workers, the National Guard and others who have significantly increased the testing, as well as the laboratories for rapidly turning around test results.
That testing and the encouraging results are creating a path toward reopening.