Joe Manchin is unfailingly optimistic.
The veteran West Virginia politician relies on the power of his personality to win over friends and detractors and alike. He always believes, perhaps naively, that he can get individuals with competing interests together to work out a compromise.
He always believes he can win an election, and he has throughout his long political career, except for once when he lost to Charlotte Pritt in the 1996 Democratic Primary Election for Governor. But Manchin followed up that loss with wins for Governor and U.S. Senate.
But now Manchin, who turned 76 in August, faces a seminal moment in his political career. He is up for re-election next year and his options are limited.
The most intriguing possibility is a presidential run. The No Labels movement is considering running a unity ticket of a Democrat and a Republican next year. Manchin is among the organization’s top choices.
However, No Labels may decide not to enter the race, and even if it does, a third party presidential run is an extreme longshot. Manchin could end his political career as a historical footnote as the candidate the losing side blames for taking away votes.
Manchin has a much better chance in a statewide race for re-election, but that will also be difficult. His home state has turned deeply red. Democratic registration has fallen to historic lows and Republicans now dominate state and federal races.
Manchin said on Talkline recently that he is considering changing his registration to Independent, but a new poll by the Terrance Group, first reported by Burgess Everett of Politico, suggests that might not help him much in West Virginia.
First, party switching can cost candidates among voters who simply don’t like that kind of move. The poll found that among those aware of Manchin possibly becoming an Independent, forty-nine percent said they oppose him switching parties.
Second, Manchin is already extremely well known among likely voters, so according to the poll, “a potential party switch to Independent would do nothing to improve Senator Manchin’s standing with West Virginia voters.”
Third, a party switch still leaves Manchin trailing Jim Justice (the leading Republican in the Senate race) by 11 points among registered Independent voters—50 percent for Justice and 39 percent for Manchin, with 11 percent undecided.
Fourth, under a party switch scenario, among all voters 49 percent indicate they would vote for Justice, and only 43 percent would vote for Manchin, with 8 percent undecided.
So Manchin faces an uphill climb even if he drops his Democratic registration. However, remember Manchin is always confident he can win, so that fourth point can be viewed as hopeful for him. The poll has a margin of error of nearly five points, so that puts him within striking distance of Justice.
Manchin continues to dodge and weave on questions about his political future. That is understandable, since he cannot say definitively what he plans to do when he himself does not know. He must know, however, that his political options are limited and whatever path he chooses will be the most difficult of his career, even for a relentless optimist.